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Wednesday January 2, 2013

2:53

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

Hey everyone, Happy New Year! Hope you had a relaxing and enjoyable holiday. There's lots to catch up on, including the Swisher deal and the status of remaining free agents like Lohse, Soriano, LaRoche and Bourn. I'll get to as many questions as possible in the next hour or so...

Wednesday January 2, 2013 2:53 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:01

[Comment From orlandoorlando: ]

Do you think the Rangers have a chance at acquiring Stanton?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:01 orlando

3:02

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

If any team has a chance, Texas would. But it sounds as though the Marlins will keep Stanton for now. Remember he's still pre-arbitration eligible, i.e. as cheap as it gets.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:02 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:03

[Comment From AndrewAndrew: ]

Are the Brewers at all considering a run at Lohse, or are they comfortable where they are?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:03 Andrew

3:04

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I don't expect they'll pursue Lohse. Understandably Lohse will want a multiyear deal, but it doesn't sound as though Doug Melvin intends to be that aggressive in considering pitching upgrades at this stage.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:04 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:04

[Comment From BrandonBrandon: ]

Are the Dodgers done making moves?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:04 Brandon

3:04

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I doubt it. I expect they'll trade from their starting pitching depth before the winter's over.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:04 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:04

[Comment From davedave: ]

thinking that lohse will end back up in st louis what do you think

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:04 dave

3:05

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I doubt it. I think they'd rather have the draft pick and rely on their internal options.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:05 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:05

[Comment From AAAA: ]

Will I look to move Bonifacio to the Braves? If so what could I realistically get back for him?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:05 AA

3:05

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I don't think the Blue Jays will be eager to move Bonifacio. He's a useful player for them and not prohibitively expensive.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:05 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:05

[Comment From mikemike: ]

Where will soriano land in your opinion, im thinking detroit

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:05 mike

3:06

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

Until Soriano signs, the Tigers have to be considered a dark-horse candidate at the very least. That said, I don't expect them to overpay for him.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:06 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:06

[Comment From MarinersMariners: ]

Is our off-season over?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:06 Mariners

3:06

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

No, I don't think so. I expect the Mariners to look for ways of adding a veteran starter and acquiring another bat.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:06 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:07

[Comment From JonathanJonathan: ]

Does Bourn end up in Texas?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:07 Jonathan

3:07

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

To me that seems like a good fit. But it depends on their level of confidence in Gentry/Martin.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:07 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:07

[Comment From TravisTravis: ]

Any news on Brandon Webb?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:07 Travis

3:08

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

He's going to throw for teams and see what level of interest he generates.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:08 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:08

[Comment From JustinJustin: ]

Where will Jose Valverde end up?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:08 Justin

3:09

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I'm not sure. I won't be surprised if he's still a free agent a month from now.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:09 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:09

[Comment From AnandaAnanda: ]

Are the Blue Jays going to make any more moves?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:09 Ananda

3:09

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

They need to figure out whether Darren Oliver is returning. Other than that, they're basically ready for Opening Day in my view.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:09 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:09

[Comment From kcfankcfan: ]

over/under royals wins in '13: 84

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:09 kcfan

3:10

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I'll take the under. But it's imaginable that they'll win more than 84 games and contend all year long.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:10 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:10

[Comment From NSNS: ]

I haven't heard anything about Jair Jurjens; has there been any rumors/speculation where he might end up?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:10 NS

3:12

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

There hasn't been much written about Jurrjens. As with many starters in line for a one-year, minor league or incentive-laden deal, he's going to have to wait until later in the offseason to see which teams want to add low-risk starting pitching. The Royals, Twins and Pirates were linked to Jurrjens last month.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:12 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:12

[Comment From StevenSteven: ]

Chances Napoli and the Red Sox resolve their differences?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:12 Steven

3:12

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I'm not going to put a number on it, but let's just say it doesn't look particularly promising that the sides have not finalized anything a month after initially agreeing to terms.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:12 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:13

[Comment From JimJim: ]

Swisher, Now Myers will the indians contend?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:13 Jim

3:14

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

It's thinkable, and I like that they've put themselves in a position to do well if things break right. That said, I don't expect them to seriously challenge the Tigers for the division at this stage. They'd need breakout performances and good health in my view.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:14 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:14

[Comment From TaylorTaylor: ]

Are the Mets seriously looking at any outfielders?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:14 Taylor

3:14

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

They must be. I don't believe Andrew Brown will be their major signing of the winter.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:14 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:15

[Comment From AnandaAnanda: ]

So if Oliver does not return what will the Blue Jays do?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:15 Ananda

3:15

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

They could rely on Happ and Cecil or turn to free agency. Maybe give the Giants a call about Jose Mijares.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:15 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:15

[Comment From 20132013: ]

Do you think things pickup again this week or will we see alot of activity next week?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:15 2013

3:16

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I think today, tomorrow and Friday will be reasonably quiet. Then next week we'll get going again and stay busy until Spring Training.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:16 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:16

[Comment From billbill: ]

will porcello start the 2013 season with the tigers?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:16 bill

3:16

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

It's imaginable, but I find a trade easier to envision, personally.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:16 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:16

[Comment From Astro EffectAstro Effect: ]

How much will the Atros move to the AL hurt teams such as the Reds and Cards (record wise), and how much will it help the new AL West foes?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:16 Astro Effect

3:17

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

Buster Olney had a good piece on this topic today and he suggested it could affect teams' records by a few wins each.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:17 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:17

[Comment From harry peterharry peter: ]

how likely is the upton to tex

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:17 harry peter

3:18

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

If we expected the Upton rumors to go away, we were clearly misguided! Now that the Diamondbacks have signed Cody Ross I can imagine them trading Upton or Kubel. Both would be fits for the Rangers, so I'm not ruling anything out, and it sounds as though the Diamondbacks aren't either.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:18 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:18

[Comment From PhilPhil: ]

Congrats on being listed as one of the most influential Canadians in baseball.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:18 Phil

3:18

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

Thanks!

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:18 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:19

[Comment From Joe KazJoe Kaz: ]

Yankees have shot at Stanton?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:19 Joe Kaz

3:19

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

As I said earlier in the chat, I really don't think the Marlins are moving Stanton. It's fun to consider, but I think the real Stanton rumors will get going next winter when he's a year closer to free agency.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:19 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:20

[Comment From brothbartbrothbart: ]

When will LaRoche realize there is no 3 year deal out there and resign with the Nats?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:20 brothbart

3:20

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I agree with what you're suggesting here. It seems doubtful that he'll find a thee-year deal, so the Nationals' two-year offer will presumably look pretty appealing at some point.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:20 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:20

[Comment From ScottScott: ]

Will Adam Wainwright sign an extension with Cards?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:20 Scott

3:20

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I imagine that's a discussion that will take place in the next 12 weeks or so.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:20 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:21

[Comment From Joe KazJoe Kaz: ]

Will Yankees extent Cano or trade him?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:21 Joe Kaz

3:22

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

They're not trading him and I don't think they're going to extend him, either. So it looks as though he'll play out the final year of his contract then let the Yankees and Dodgers bid on him a year from now.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:22 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:22

[Comment From Theo ETheo E: ]

Will we be finalists for Bourn?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:22 Theo E

3:23

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I don't know, and it's entirely possible that the Cubs don't know either. They have been linked to him so far this winter, and he would be a fit. But he costs a draft pick and for all of their offseason spending so far, the Cubs haven't added players who've cost picks. I doubt they're eager to start doing so now.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:23 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:23

[Comment From coastercoaster: ]

Is Andre Ethier worth his five-year, $85 million contract? Could the Dodgers expect much in return if Ethier is traded to a team that pays the entire contract? Or do The Blue care more about prospects than money?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:23 coaster

3:25

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I think Ethier did well to sign that contract at the time he did. It's hard to imagine he would have done better in free agency in my view. So he wouldn't have much surplus value to most teams. However, for teams like the Mariners who have trouble luring free agents bats to their city, Ethier could have significant appeal.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:25 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:25

[Comment From BryanBryan: ]

Is J. Niese a future #1?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:25 Bryan

3:25

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

He has some breakout potential, as Dave Cameron recently explained at ESPN.com.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:25 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:25

[Comment From JIMBO THE CLOWNJIMBO THE CLOWN: ]

What could the Nats get in return for Morse?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:25 JIMBO THE CLOWN

3:27

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

A controllable reliever? A solid starting pitching prospect near the MLB level? A versatile player capable of covering many positions and adding value on offense? High ceiling low level prospects? It would depend on what Rizzo wanted, but I can envision many scenarios.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:27 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:27

[Comment From BabaBaba: ]

do you see the 'Stros moving Lowrie before the season? any idea who'd be in on him?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:27 Baba

3:28

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

The Jed Lowrie rumors have been pretty quiet this offseason, so I won't be surprised if he stays put. Teams like the A's, Rays and Diamondbacks, who could have been suitors, have now addressed their needs.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:28 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:28

[Comment From emersonemerson: ]

morse e una opcion para los filis

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:28 emerson

3:29

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

To me intra-divisional trades don't seem that likely. The Nationals surely view the Phillies as a threat entering the 2013 season.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:29 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:30

[Comment From BretBret: ]

If not the Tigers - who keep saying they have no interest - where are some landing spots for Rafael Soriano?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:30 Bret

3:31

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

Surely Boras will have tried to engage the Dodgers on Soriano. They've shown they're willing to spend big all year, so that's one fit. There's also the chance an injury will re-shape the market for closers in Spring Training. Madson and Soria went down last year, and a similar injury could create a new bidder in 2013.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:31 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:31

[Comment From RonnieWooWooRonnieWooWoo: ]

Marmol for Morse?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:31 RonnieWooWoo

3:31

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

The Nationals can do better.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:31 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:32

[Comment From JoshJosh: ]

Better 2013 Season: Josh Johnson or Adam Wainwright

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:32 Josh

3:32

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

Fair question. I'll go with Wainwright, but won't be surprised in the least if Johnson (who's an MLBTR reader) has a huge year.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:32 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:33

[Comment From RickRick: ]

Does Felix get Allen Craig, Oscar Taveras & Carlos Martinez?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:33 Rick

3:34

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I don't see the Mariners trading Felix. If that was a part of their offseason plan, they would presumably have made that intention clear earlier in the winter so that they could engage as many bidders as possible before teams moved on and acquired other starters.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:34 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:34

[Comment From Randy-Tigers Fan , VARandy-Tigers Fan , VA: ]

Will Tigers sign another FA outfielder?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:34 Randy-Tigers Fan , VA

3:34

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

Perhaps a right-handed hitting corner outfielder who can complement Dirks.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:34 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:35

[Comment From RickRick: ]

Do the M's end up with Ethier by spring training? What'll it cost them (if anything)?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:35 Rick

3:35

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I see Ethier staying in place in LA.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:35 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:35

[Comment From PLPL: ]

Quickly name a pitcher who moved from the NL to the AL and had a huge year. Odds are against Johnson vs the AL East/DH/AL.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:35 PL

3:36

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

Kuroda made the transition pretty smoothly.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:36 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:36

[Comment From BobytBobyt: ]

over / under Dodgers 90 wins

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:36 Bobyt

3:36

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I'll take the over. They look really good.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:36 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:36

[Comment From jeffjeff: ]

Is LaRoche waiting to see how the Napoli situation is resolved in Boston before signing?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:36 jeff

3:36

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

That could definitely be a factor. It sounds as though the Nationals were urging him to make a decision quickly, though.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:36 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:37

[Comment From JustinJustin: ]

Will Alfonso Soriano get moved this winter or at the dead line?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:37 Justin

3:38

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I can't imagine his trade value will improve, which suggests to me that the Cubs will seriously consider trading him before Spring Training. Still, they'd need to get offense back somehow if they do that, since they had lots of trouble scoring in 2012.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:38 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:38

[Comment From HarrisHarris: ]

Can you explain how Dickey can be worth a huge package, but only 2 years, $25M? Doesn't seem to make much sense.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:38 Harris

3:39

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

You make a really good point. Clearly Toronto and the Mets value Dickey highly. But I think his age really cut into his leverage, as did his intention to sign an extension if at all possible.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:39 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:39

[Comment From CarsonCarson: ]

Is 6/135 enough for cano?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:39 Carson

3:39

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I doubt it.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:39 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:40

[Comment From JustinJustin: ]

Will Profar get regular playing time 2B or platoon? Any chance he starts in the minors?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:40 Justin

3:41

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

One way or another I expect Profar to get 350 plate appearances or more at the MLB level. That could mean he starts the year in the minors, but I think they'll find a way to work him in.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:41 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:41

[Comment From MattMatt: ]

Do the Orioles consider themselves contenders?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:41 Matt

3:42

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I think they should, after last year. But I expect some regression there, since their bullpen will have a hard time replicating its 2012 success. They've been very quiet this winter and I think they still need a bat plus pitching depth.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:42 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:42

[Comment From JohnJohn: ]

In your opinion, will Harper or Trout have sophomore slumps?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:42 John

3:42

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I expect Harper to be a little better than he was in 2012 and I expect Trout to be a little worse (but still insanely good).

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:42 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:43

[Comment From joedjoed: ]

over/under pirates 86 wins

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:43 joed

3:43

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I will take the under.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:43 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:43

[Comment From SpikesSpikes: ]

Who is the worst team in baseball and estimate what their record will be.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:43 Spikes

3:43

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I expect the Astros to have the worst record in baseball with 105 or so losses.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:43 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:43

[Comment From JoshJosh: ]

Pick the 1 team to beat in each league: Angels and Nationals???

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:43 Josh

3:44

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

Those two are fair. I would also add the Reds, Cardinals, Giants and Tigers in the mix. Which suggests to me there's no single 'team to beat' at this stage. I'll go with the Giants out of respect for their 2012 title and strong 2013 roster.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:44 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:44

[Comment From JMoodJMood: ]

Eric Hosmer to Boston?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:44 JMood

3:45

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

No, I don't see the Royals trading Hosmer.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:45 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:45

[Comment From NorthsiderNorthsider: ]

Are qualifying offers hurting free agents more than they are helping small market teams? It doesn't seem fair that players like Bourn are losing value because they have a draft pick tied to them.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:45 Northsider

3:48

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

Draft pick compensation isn't 'fair' to free agents by definition. If a company such as Apple had to provide compensation to your former company, say, Google, your leverage in negotiating a deal with Apple would be seriously compromised. Any time there are compensatory picks involved, they serve as an unofficial tax on free agency.

In this case, Bourn, LaRoche and others are losing out. Under the previous CBA there were also lower level free agents like Jason Frasor and Juan Cruz who suffered. In my view this system is better, though frustrating in some instances.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:48 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:48

[Comment From SpikesSpikes: ]

Cano in the 25 million dollars per year club?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:48 Spikes

3:48

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

It'd depend on the year he has in 2013, but he certainly has a shot at that threshold.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:48 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:49

[Comment From Ben Smith FANBen Smith FAN: ]

Will we see another wave of trades this offseason or should we expect teams to stand pat?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:49 Ben Smith FAN

3:50

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I think there will be lots more trades. Some unresolved situations: Dodgers pitching depth, Arizona's outfield depth, Tigers' pitching depth, Alfonso Soriano, Nationals' potential first base depth.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:50 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:50

[Comment From Ned CollettiNed Colletti: ]

Should I really bank on Luis Cruz as my everyday third baseman in 2013, or should I be looking for someone else?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:50 Ned Colletti

3:51

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

The thing is, there was never a strong market for third basemen to begin with this offseason. Cruz is no All-Star, but I expect he'll get a shot. If he isn't playing well we know what the Dodgers will be looking for in July.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:51 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:52

[Comment From Son of WahooSon of Wahoo: ]

Should the Indians change their name / logo?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:52 Son of Wahoo

3:52

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

If I were consulting the Indians, I would say 'yes, change your name and logo and don't waste time doing it.' But it's up to them and, so far, they haven't asked me!

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:52 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:53

[Comment From AaronAaron: ]

Is Brian Wilson going to motown or is Soriano destined there

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:53 Aaron

3:53

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

Soriano is far from destined to join the Tigers. Brian Wilson would be another option on an incentive-based one-year deal. Still, the Tigers are insisting they could go ahead with Rondon.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:53 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:54

[Comment From RynoRyno: ]

Are the Marlins content with Steve Cishek as their Closer?

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:54 Ryno

3:55

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

I imagine they are. They tried spending big on relief last year and it didn't work, despite Heath Bell's name value. This time they're working on a tighter budget, so I don't expect them to make a prominent addition unless it costs under $5MM.

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:55 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:55

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

Time for a few more...

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:55 Ben Nicholson-Smith

3:57

[Comment From NitschkeNitschke: ]

Does Gary Sheffield have any other clients in MLB besides Grilli? (Let's hope not)

Wednesday January 2, 2013 3:57 Nitschke

3:57

Ben Nicholson-Smith:

Former MLB pitcher Josh Banks is another client of Sheffield.