Pennsylvania(04/22/2008) 
5:53
Allahpundit: 
AP: Test
Tuesday April 22, 2008 5:53 Allahpundit
5:55
Allahpundit: 
AP: What could be crazier than this primary, except of course for Snoop Dogg singing in German?   I ask you.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 5:55 Allahpundit
5:59
Allahpundit: 
AP: Early returns will favor Obama since they come from the cities so take this with a grain of salt, but Geraghty reports a shocker: Obama 52, Hillary 47 in early exits.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 5:59 Allahpundit
6:01
Allahpundit: 
AP: Take heart.   Drudge's exists have the gender breakdown tilting her way: 47/53 among men but 55/44 among women, who typically vote in greater numbers in Democratic primaries
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:01 Allahpundit
6:02
Allahpundit: 
AP: Fox News says Hillary wins big among gun owners, 58/42, and churchgoers, 59/41.   Bittergate backlash?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:02 Allahpundit
6:03
Allahpundit: 
EM: Hi, all!   Geraghty's hearing Obama in a surprise, but we'll see...
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:03 Allahpundit
6:04
Allahpundit: 
AP: More good news -- Hillary wins big again among late deciders (because of the debate?), 58/42.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:04 Allahpundit
6:05
Allahpundit: 
EM: Excellent.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:05 Allahpundit
6:06
[Comment From MikeMike: ] 
I'm liking the fact that the bitter demographic broke huge towards Hill... can't wait for the general if Obama's the nominee... 84 landslide?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:06 Mike
6:07
Allahpundit: 
EM: Or '72?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:07 Allahpundit
6:07
Allahpundit: 
EM:   Here's the Geraghty post.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:07 Allahpundit
6:19
Allahpundit: 
EM: Crud-- I messed that up!
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:19 Allahpundit
6:20
Allahpundit: 

EM: Sorry, AP.   My fault.


Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:20 Allahpundit
6:26
Ed: 
OK, this should work now.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:26 Ed
6:26
[Comment From bnelson44bnelson44: ] 
Drudge: EXIT POLL DRAMA 5 PM ET: CLINTON 52, OBAMA 48 ... ummm
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:26 bnelson44
6:27
[Comment From Ali-BubbaAli-Bubba: ] 
How about we wait until we have some actual votes to count?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:27 Ali-Bubba
6:27
Ed: 
What fun is that?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:27 Ed
6:28
What do you expect to see?
Hillary in a double-digit wipeout
 ( 20% )
Hillary with a comfortable win
 ( 43% )
Hillary barely edges Obama
 ( 32% )
Obama surprises everyone with a win
 ( 4% )

Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:28 
6:29
[Comment From GuestGuest: ] 
OT Hugh Hewitt is playing Bill Ayers clips from 2007 right now. Good stuff.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:29 Guest
6:30
Ed: 
I saw his post.   I'll have to get his audio later.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:30 Ed
6:32
[Comment From JayJay: ] 
How big of a win does Hill need to stay in?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:32 Jay
6:32
Ed: 

I don't think she gets out unless she outright loses in PA.


Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:32 Ed
6:35
[Comment From JayJay: ] 
BTW Ed, I have been a huge fan since discovering Captain's Quarters, and I love the new gig at Hot Air. I appreciate your work. OK, I'll stop blubbering now.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:35 Jay
6:35
Ed: 
Thanks, Jay.   Much appreciated.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:35 Ed
6:36
Allahpundit: 
AP: Amazingly, 43% of Pennsylvanians think Hillary will be the nominee.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:36 Allahpundit
6:37
Ed: 
Really?   They must be really bitter, AP ....
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:37 Ed
6:38
[Comment From HannibalHannibal: ] 
Is PA winner-take-all for delegates?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:38 Hannibal
6:38
Ed: 
Nope. All Dem contests are proportional allocation primaries/caucuses.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:38 Ed
6:43
Allahpundit: 
AP: More Drudge exits. Hillary wins whites, 60/40, Obama wins blacks, 92/8.   Good lord.   She really is the Republican in the race.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:43 Allahpundit
6:44
Allahpundit: 
And to no one's surprise, Obama wins big among new voters.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:44 Allahpundit
6:46
Allahpundit: 
Actually, it's not just new voters.   It's new Democratic voters -- which means those numbers include Operation Chaos crossovers.   Does that mean OC flamed out, or did it mitigate a potentially even more lopsided break towards Obama?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:46 Allahpundit
6:47
Ed: 
Here's a question for you, AP.   If those numbers hold and Hillary still wins PA, doesn't that pretty much mean McCain will wind up taking this state from the Dems in November?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:47 Ed
6:48
Allahpundit: 
It certainly bodes well...
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:48 Allahpundit
6:48
Ed: 
One can imagine that almost all of the blacks in PA are Democrats, which means that he's probably hit his ceiling there already ....
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:48 Ed
6:49
Ed: 
... especially with the 27% or so of Hillary voters who claim they will defect if Obama wins the nomination.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:49 Ed
6:54
Allahpundit: 
An added gloss on the sore loser contingent: Not only would 26% of Hillary's supporters vote for McCain over Obama, another 19% wouldn't vote at all.   Even assuming that 90% of these people will come around and vote Democratic, that's still close to 5% of her supporters overall who aren't voting for BO.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:54 Allahpundit
6:55
Ed: 
You know there will be tremendous pressure to get both of them on the ticket if these numbers stay where they are.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:55 Ed
6:55
[Comment From freevillagefreevillage: ] 
How big of a list can you, AP, yourself roll out of people who said they would never ever vote for the traitor Juan McVain?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:55 freevillage
6:56
Allahpundit: 
Absolutely fair point -- but there are still a few in the comments here who swear they won't vote for Maverick.   As I say, 90% of these people will come around.   It's the other 10% who interest me.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:56 Allahpundit
6:56
Ed: 
And McCain will have months to woo them back.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:56 Ed
6:57
[Comment From BroncosrockBroncosrock: ] 
I like to see that Ed having Clinton as VP LOL LOL LOL
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:57 Broncosrock
6:57
Ed: 
If these numbers continue to look bad at the convention, everyone there will be demanding it.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:57 Ed
7:00
Ed: 
CNN says 55% of white men backed Hillary.   That sounds like game, set, match.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:00 Ed
7:01
[Comment From JohnJohn: ] 
this is republican managed bullshit. this is not even close to freedom of speech
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:01 John
7:01
Ed: 
WTF?   Someone oppressing you?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:01 Ed
7:02
[Comment From chrisrochrisro: ] 
How can I pause this? I need to go cling to my gun and Bible and I don't want to miss anything.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:02 chrisro
7:02
Ed: 
I feel your pain,Chrisro.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:02 Ed
7:03
Ed: 
John, guess, what?   You can blog for yourself.   "Free speech" does not require me to give you a platform, dude.  
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:03 Ed
7:04
Allahpundit: 
A plurality of new voters, 35%, were from Philly
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:04 Allahpundit
7:06
Allahpundit: 
MSNBC says women cast 60% of the votes.   Combine that with Hillary's margin among white men and I'm thinking these exit polls are lowballing her considerably.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:06 Allahpundit
7:06
Ed: 
67% feel that Hillary attacked Obama unfairly, 49% thought Obama did, too.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:06 Ed
7:10
Allahpundit: 
Already mentioned but worth mentioning again: Hillary wins big among regular churchgoers, only slightly among occasional churchgoers.   I'm reluctant to read too much Bittergate into that but Obama's the one who's made more direct appeals to faith on the stump so it's not obvious to me why she'd win so handily.   I guess we'd have to see how church attendance correlates with her demographic base: working-class, union, etc.   It probably is higher among her core than it is among Obama's.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:10 Allahpundit
7:12
Ed: 
Were they clinging to their Bibles in the polling stations?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:12 Ed
7:13
Allahpundit: 
Rendell says a 10-point win would be "extraordinary."   I wonder what their internal polls are showing.   Given the gender breakdowns, that doesn't seem so unlikely.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:13 Allahpundit
7:15
Ed: 
Donna Brazile says Obama can claim a win if he closes it to less than .... wait for it ....
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:15 Ed
7:15
Ed: 
20 points.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:15 Ed
7:20
Allahpundit: 
Here's a little more Chaos for you while we wait.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:20 Allahpundit
7:21
Ed: 
What a shock -- CNN is reporting "voting irregularities" in Philly, and a lawsuit got filed to keep the polls open.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:21 Ed
7:23
Allahpundit: 
Preparing for the likely absence of any thrills going up his leg tonight, Chris Matthews sulks.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:23 Allahpundit
7:25
Allahpundit: 
"Stop the Drama, Vote Obama"
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:25 Allahpundit
7:34
Ed: 
CNN is reporting that Republicans are now beginning to think that Hillary would be a tougher candidate than Obama in the GE
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:34 Ed
7:35
Ed: 
Sources within the RNC, apparently
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:35 Ed
7:35
Who will be a tougher candidate for John McCain?
Obama
 ( 46% )
Hillary
 ( 54% )

Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:35 
7:36
Allahpundit: 
Another sign of a big Hillary win: The percentage of older voters, part of her base, was almost twice what it was in Ohio -- where she won by 10 points.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:36 Allahpundit
7:36
[Comment From freevillagefreevillage: ] 
How many online viewers do you guys have right now?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:36 freevillage
7:37
Ed: 
Hi, Free!   267   current viewers,   624 overall
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:37 Ed
7:40
Ed: 
Oh Lord,please give Lou Dobbs and Paul Begala laryngitis
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:40 Ed
7:44
[Comment From Christopher CalandroChristopher Calandro: ] 
Now Ed, that's not a very Christian attitude now, is it? ;-p
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:44 Christopher Calandro
7:45
Ed: 
Probably not, but holy cow, man ....
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:45 Ed
7:45
Allahpundit: 
Anyone want to bet on whether the state is called for Hillary at 8?   I'm guessing no, just because the cities will be first to report.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:45 Allahpundit
7:47
Ed: 
I'll guess 10 pm ET.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:47 Ed
7:47
[Comment From steveeggsteveegg: ] 
Won't be called until 9:03 pm EDT.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:47 steveegg
7:48
Ed: 
CNN reports that Clinton won 58% of late deciders -- about what Fox found.   That debate hurt Obama.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:48 Ed
7:50
Allahpundit: 
Here's CNN's Pennsylvania results page so that you can follow along as returns trickle in.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:50 Allahpundit
7:51
Allahpundit: 
She usually does well with late deciders, though, doesn't she?   Known quantity, brand name...
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:51 Allahpundit
7:51
Ed: 

True, AP.

Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:51 Ed
7:52
Ed: 
AP, are you watching Fox or CNN?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:52 Ed
7:52
Allahpundit: 
MSNBC, actually
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:52 Allahpundit
7:53
Ed: 
Oh, OK.   I'll switch to Fox.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:53 Ed
7:54
Ed: 
Everyone should send AP their gratitude for subjecting himself to Olbermann and Matthews.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:54 Ed
7:55
Allahpundit: 
I have the sound off so it's not too bad
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:55 Allahpundit
7:55
Ed: 
Ha!
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:55 Ed
7:55
[Comment From steveeggsteveegg: ] 
Cheater! :-)
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:55 steveegg
7:55
Ed: 
No, survivor
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:55 Ed
7:58
Ed: 
Fox exit poll: 54% of Dems find Hillary trustworthy, 67% of Dems find Obama trustworthy (in PA)
Tuesday April 22, 2008 7:58 Ed
8:00
[Comment From SekhmetSekhmet: ] 
Barak is in IN tonight
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:00 Sekhmet
8:00
Allahpundit: 
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:00 Allahpundit
8:00
Ed: 

If Obama expected to win or do well, I think he would be in Philly instead of IN.


Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:00 Ed
8:01
Allahpundit: 
Standing by right now for complete exit poll data, which should come soon
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:01 Allahpundit
8:01
Ed: 
Women 55%=44% Hillary.   Seniors - 65-32.   Union households, 58-42 Hillary.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:01 Ed
8:02
Ed: 
Urban voters - 69-31 Obama.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:02 Ed
8:02
Allahpundit: 
And here's the exit poll.   Come and get it.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:02 Allahpundit
8:02
Ed: 
Independents are split -- good news for Hillary.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:02 Ed
8:04
Ed: 
Independents apparently signed up as Dems for the primary.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:04 Ed
8:05
Ed: 
OK, Hillary won by eight among women and Obama won men by nine -- but women comprised 58% of the vote.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:05 Ed
8:05
Allahpundit: 
Wow -- Hillary wins among 25-29 year olds
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:05 Allahpundit
8:05
Allahpundit: 
Obama won men by 6
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:05 Allahpundit
8:05
Allahpundit: 
Hillary won women by 11
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:05 Allahpundit
8:06
Ed: 
AP, thanks -- read it exactly wrong, thanks
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:06 Ed
8:06
Ed: 
Looks like a big win for Hillary
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:06 Ed
8:07
Allahpundit: 
Hillary wins Catholic and Protestants and Obama wins "Other" big
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:07 Allahpundit
8:09
Allahpundit: 
I'll never get used to thinking of Hillary Clinton as the preferred candidate of working class Democrats
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:09 Allahpundit
8:10
Ed: 
Identity politics watch: Obama only won "gender unimportant" voters by six points, Hillary won "gender important" by 41 points.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:10 Ed
8:11
Allahpundit: 
It's worth noting as you scroll the data that Obama's supporters tend to be consistently (albeit marginally) warmer to the idea of Hillary as nominee than her supporters do towards him.   She consistently does a few points better in each category among his voters than he does with hers.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:11 Allahpundit
8:12
[Comment From malan89malan89: ] 
Check out Page 5. Was race of candidate important to you?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:12 malan89
8:13
Ed: 
This was interesting.   Hillary won that by 18 points.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:13 Ed
8:13
Ed: 
(of those who think it's important)
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:13 Ed
8:13
Ed: 
Dems are racist?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:13 Ed
8:13
Allahpundit: 
Hillary crushed him among seniors: 61/38.   That'll be a huge boost for McCain against Obama
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:13 Allahpundit
8:14
Allahpundit: 
Also curious: Hillary wins among conservatives 52/48, but wins even bigger among moderates, 57/42.   If Operation Chaos played a role tonight, it probably wasn't enormous
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:14 Allahpundit
8:15
Ed: 
Laugh of the night: Richard Vigurie sent an e-mail telling McCain how to choose his running mate
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:15 Ed
8:15
[Comment From Hugh HewittHugh Hewitt: ] 
It's obvious that Mitt Romney stands to gain from a big Hillary win tonight...
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:15 Hugh Hewitt
8:16
Ed: 

ROFL!


Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:16 Ed
8:16
Allahpundit: 
Operation Chaos mythbusted? Among people who switched their registration from GOP to Democrat, Obama wins 55/40
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:16 Allahpundit
8:17
Ed: 
I've never put much stock in Operation Chaos, anyway
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:17 Ed
8:17
Allahpundit: 
Obama takes the "Religion: None" vote, 66/34
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:17 Allahpundit
8:18
Ed: 
After   Crackerquiddick, he's speaking directly to them, I guess...
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:18 Ed
8:18
Allahpundit: 
Here's something weird: Obama wins "Other Christians" 71/29.   That excludes Catholics, Protestants, and Mormons.   Who's left?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:18 Allahpundit
8:19
Ed: 
The Amish.   They're big on Obama.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:19 Ed
8:20
Allahpundit: 
Hillary wins among late late late deciders (last three days), 60/40
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:20 Allahpundit
8:21
Ed: 
Hillmentum?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:21 Ed
8:21
Allahpundit: 
People who decided before last week split 50/50. Since last week? 58/42.   Maybe it was the debate after all.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:21 Allahpundit
8:22
Ed: 
Bob Beckel is talking about this on Fox.   He says it's significant that the front-runner isn't capturing the late-breakers at this stage of the campaign.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:22 Ed
8:23
Allahpundit: 
It is strange that people on the fence seem to be breaking towards her knowing that they could essentially end the race by just tossing their votes at him
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:23 Allahpundit
8:24
[Comment From Sandeep DathSandeep Dath: ] 
Ed, what do you make the margin out to be?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:24 Sandeep Dath
8:24
Ed: 
I guessed eight earlier today, I'm thinking it might be a little higher than that
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:24 Ed
8:25
Allahpundit: 
Steyn notes that if all the dirt that's come out on Obama over the past month isn't enough to give her a double-digit win, what is?   Call it the anti-Beckel point.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:25 Allahpundit
8:25
Ed: 
Barone says that it lookslike Obama overpolled again -- meaning that the numbers may turn out better for Hillary
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:25 Ed
8:26
[Comment From ZachZach: ] 
How can Barry be overpolled? Do people lie about voting for him in exit polls?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:26 Zach
8:27
Ed: 
Basically, yes, or they sampled the precincts poorly
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:27 Ed
8:32
[Comment From Steve ZSteve Z: ] 
If you extrapolate the men/women vote, it looks like Hillary 51.6/Obama 48.4, which wouldn't be a big win for Hillary. Do you think the exit poll was representative, with Philly and its suburbs only 29% of the vote, where Obama cleaned up?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:32 Steve Z
8:33
Ed: 
Steve, if she won women by 11 and lost men by 6 and women comprised 58% of the vote, she should have won by much more than 3....
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:33 Ed
8:37
Ed: 
Yup, Steve is correct.   Sorry Steve!
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:37 Ed
8:38
Ed: 
Fox is saying their polls show Hillary up 6, but they're not confident of the polling
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:38 Ed
8:38
[Comment From freevillagefreevillage: ] 
Ed, (.555 * .58) + (.47 * .42) = 0.5193
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:38 freevillage
8:38
Allahpundit: 
Yeah, freevillage is right.   I did that calculation myself a few minutes ago
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:38 Allahpundit
8:38
Allahpundit: 
You'd think her lead would be bigger but it's not
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:38 Allahpundit
8:39
Ed: 
Some results have finally begun to trickle in....
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:39 Ed
8:39
Allahpundit: 
If Obama gets out of here with a four-point loss, I think he'll be reasonably happy with it
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:39 Allahpundit
8:40
[Comment From SDSD: ] 
Ed, I think it's important to note that there's 55 delegates awarded to the state wide winner and 103 awarded on a district basis. So let's say HRC will get 55 + 53 (say) delegates vs Obama's 50. that's nearly a 60 delegate pickup reducing the delegate difference to double digits.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:40 SD
8:40
Ed: 
Interesting ....
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:40 Ed
8:45
Ed: 
Fox just called it for Hillary
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:45 Ed
8:47
Ed: 
Just dumped in a big batch of votes ....
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:47 Ed
8:47
Allahpundit: 
Hmmm.   Would they have called it this early if they're only projecting a four-point margin?   It's got to be bigger
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:47 Allahpundit
8:47
Ed: 
1% in, Hillary up by 20 points with 33,000 votes counted
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:47 Ed
8:47
Ed: 
AP, I agree -- it's got to be significant.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:47 Ed
8:48
[Comment From MHMH: ] 
Sounds like the "cling" factor is significant.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:48 MH
8:48
Ed: 
Heard of static cling?   This is cling static.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:48 Ed
8:49
Allahpundit: 
Obama's favorite cable news network has yet to call it, fyi
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:49 Allahpundit
8:51
Ed: 
3% in, 10-point lead for Hillary
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:51 Ed
8:52
Allahpundit: 
Ok, MSNBC calls it for Hillary now too
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:52 Allahpundit
8:53
[Comment From VizziniVizzini: ] 
Philadelphia is currently split 50-50...
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:53 Vizzini
8:54
Ed: 
That would be a disaster for Obama.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:54 Ed
8:54
Allahpundit: 
I have to believe what's happened here is that they're getting the early results from urban areas in and he's not doing nearly as well as expected.   There's no way he's going to make up disappointing city numbers with big wins in the rural areas
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:54 Allahpundit
8:56
Ed: 
I'm seeing 12% in from Philly and Obama only up 4.   Wow.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:56 Ed
8:57
Ed: 
Another big vote dump, and Hill's up 12 points now.   Still 3% precincts reporting.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:57 Ed
8:57
Allahpundit: 
Here's the Obama spin: Hey, we did better than Ohio!
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:57 Allahpundit
8:57
Ed: 
Good luck with that --- it may not be true.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:57 Ed
8:58
Ed: 
4% precinctsreporting, Hill up 14.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 8:58 Ed
9:00
Allahpundit: 
5% reporting -- Hill up only 6
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:00 Allahpundit
9:00
What will the margin be for Hillary tonight?
1-5 points
 ( 5% )
6-9
 ( 29% )
10-12
 ( 45% )
13 or more
 ( 21% )

Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:00 
9:00
Ed: 
Barone says Hillary won the Philly suburbs.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:00 Ed
9:01
[Comment From EntelechyEntelechy: ] 
Barone said 55/45 Hillary/Obama
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:01 Entelechy
9:02
Ed: 
New meme on Fox: Hillary wins the big states
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:02 Ed
9:03
Allahpundit: 
Anecdotal evidence of Operation Chaos's success
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:03 Allahpundit
9:05
Ed: 
Major Garrett says that Hillary Clinton will demand another debate before North Carolina -- and if he refuses, they'll argue that Obama can't compete
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:05 Ed
9:06
Ed: 
CNN apparently just called it for Hillary
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:06 Ed
9:07
Ed: 
The overall gap keeps changing, but the first results are coming from the urban areas -- and these numbers are really bad for Obama.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:07 Ed
9:08
Allahpundit: 
Poke around at CNN's county map and note the margins.   She's just killing him in some areas.   He needs a huge win in Philly to make up for it.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:08 Allahpundit
9:09
[Comment From BBBB: ] 
Ed -- What would you have called good urban numbers for Obama (use Philly with a 55/45 split right now)
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:09 BB
9:09
Ed: 
He would have needed a 2-1 advantage there.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:09 Ed
9:11
Allahpundit: 
Awesome.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:11 Allahpundit
9:12
Allahpundit: 
Ambinder says it's not so much that Obama is underperforming in Philly as Hillary is overperforming elsewhere.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:12 Allahpundit
9:13
Allahpundit: 
10-point lead for Obama in Philly with 28% reporting
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:13 Allahpundit
9:14
Ed: 
I'd call that severely underperforming in Philly
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:14 Ed
9:15
[Comment From malan89malan89: ] 
Any word on how Hillary is doing in Pitt and surroundings? That was supposed to be a big stronghold for her.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:15 malan89
9:15
Ed: 
Allegheny County is not reporting yet
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:15 Ed
9:16
Allahpundit: 
From the NYT, it's too good to check: "They say a lot of people who are independents have been showing up, thinking they could vote in the Democratic contest. Too bad they weren’t paying attention earlier. As Caucus readers know, you have to be registered as a Democrat to vote in the party’s primary."
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:16 Allahpundit
9:21
[Comment From BroncosrockBroncosrock: ] 
Bob Bechel is saying McCain should not have gone to Cpac. My question to ED and AP is would you have voted for McCain in November if he did not show up at CPac
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:21 Broncosrock
9:21
Ed: 
Yes, but it wasn't a mistake for him to show up -- why does Beckel think that??
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:21 Ed
9:21
Allahpundit: 
Sure
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:21 Allahpundit
9:22
[Comment From BroncosrockBroncosrock: ] 
It destoyed his image as a Indep Republican and made him more closer to crazy republicans
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:22 Broncosrock
9:22
Ed: 
yawn.....
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:22 Ed
9:23
Ed: 
Beckel's off base here
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:23 Ed
9:25
Allahpundit: 
Obama's lead in Philly is widening. 14 points with 41% in
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:25 Allahpundit
9:33
[Comment From johnjohn: ] 
51% reporting, Obama is up 19 in Philly
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:33 john
9:33
Ed: 
This is the reason we're seeing the overall number narrow a bit.   However, we only have 20% of the overall vote, which means that when the rest of the state comes in, it will be mostly from Hillary areas.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:33 Ed
9:34
[Comment From SDSD: ] 
What do you think about the fact that McCain's at 72% with 20% of precincts reporting?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:34 SD
9:34
Ed: 
Not much.   He's already won the nomination.   It's pretty meaningless.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:34 Ed
9:38
Ed: 
Terry McAuliffe endorses Fox News.   No, really.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:38 Ed
9:47
Allahpundit: 
I doubt she'll win Allegheny by Bill did spend a lot of time there the last few days
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:47 Allahpundit
9:49
Allahpundit: 
That county map is freaky.   He's got practically nothing except Philly.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:49 Allahpundit
9:50
Ed: 
Allegheny -- Hill's up by 12 with 45% reporting?   wow.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:50 Ed
9:53
Allahpundit: 
His lead continues to tick up a point every 20 minutes in Philly but her statewide lead never moves off of eight...
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:53 Allahpundit
9:54
Ed: 
This looks a lot like Ohio.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:54 Ed
9:57
Ed: 
Fox is going back to its regular programming....
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:57 Ed
9:59
Ed: 
Allentown has Hillary up 60-40 with 19% reporting.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:59 Ed
9:59
Allahpundit: 
As of 10 p.m. ET, it's distinctly possible that the only county he'll win is Philly
Tuesday April 22, 2008 9:59 Allahpundit
10:00
[Comment From sammy316sammy316: ] 
Flyers and Caps are in OT
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:00 sammy316
10:00
Ed: 
Yeah, but how many precincts reporting?   ;-)
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:00 Ed
10:03
Allahpundit: 
I take it back: He looks like a lock in Dauphin
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:03 Allahpundit
10:06
Ed: 
Right now, it looks like it's going to stay around eight points, although it may go up a bit as more outstate votes come in.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:06 Ed
10:06
Ed: 
Eight points looks like a floor for Hillary now.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:06 Ed
10:07
Ed: 
And as soon as I said that, it jumps to ten .....
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:07 Ed
10:10
Allahpundit: 
84% reporting in Philly.   If the lead's already 10 and his fired his biggest gun, where's it going to end up?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:10 Allahpundit
10:16
Ed: 
It's a bad night for Obama, no doubt
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:16 Ed
10:17
Ed: 
Democrats have to wonder how they can win a general election when Obama can't win a county outside of the big urban centers
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:17 Ed
10:17
Allahpundit: 
With 90% in, Philly's breaking 64/36 for him -- a healthy margin given his expectations -- and he's still getting hammered statewide
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:17 Allahpundit
10:18
Ed: 
She's leading by 110,000 votes and 61%   of the vote in...
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:18 Ed
10:21
Allahpundit: 
YES SHE CAN
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:21 Allahpundit
10:21
Allahpundit: 
No, she really can't
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:21 Allahpundit
10:22
Allahpundit: 
Maybe I'll send her some money
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:22 Allahpundit
10:23
Allahpundit: 
SHAMELESS LIAR, WE ARE WITH YOU!
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:23 Allahpundit
10:24
Allahpundit: 
I'm tempted to say that I'll donate five bucks every time BJ says something stupid, but Michelle doesn't pay me that much
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:24 Allahpundit
10:25
Allahpundit: 
How much would that run me a month?   $4-5,000?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:25 Allahpundit
10:28
Allahpundit: 
With 94% reporting, Obama now leads by 30 in Philly
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:28 Allahpundit
10:28
Allahpundit: 
I don't think she's going to break double digits
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:28 Allahpundit
10:28
Allahpundit: 
A lot of her counties have already mostly reported
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:28 Allahpundit
10:29
Allahpundit: 
YAY, BILL
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:29 Allahpundit
10:33
Ed: 
sorry, I was off for a bit with two phone calls
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:33 Ed
10:33
Ed: 
Has Obama spun this into a victory yet?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:33 Ed
10:39
Allahpundit: 
Oh my.   The Times isn't in a good mood at all.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:39 Allahpundit
10:44
[Comment From nailinmyeyenailinmyeye: ] 
AP - how many Newcastles to get you through primary coverage like tonight's? Just curious.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:44 nailinmyeye
10:44
Allahpundit: 
No drinky during the week
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:44 Allahpundit
10:45
Ed: 
Oh, what a shock: Obama's using Mellencamp
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:45 Ed
10:46
Ed: 
"Thank you, Evansville!   You're not Pennsylvanians!"
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:46 Ed
10:46
Ed: 
"I love you back.   Now let me eat my waffle."
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:46 Ed
10:47
Ed: 
"Mainly because like me,  he married up."     Don't let David Brock know that.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:47 Ed
10:48
Ed: 
Hillary's back up to a 10-point lead.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:48 Ed
10:49
Ed: 
and back down to 8.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:49 Ed
10:50
Ed: 
"a planet in peril"???
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:50 Ed
10:51
Ed: 
Hyperbole much?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:51 Ed
10:53
Allahpundit: 
Shameless liar seeks donations to defeat Marxist elitist
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:53 Allahpundit
10:55
Allahpundit: 
Mary Katharine Ham notes that there are no fewer than three guys wearing Abercrombie & Fitch shirts right behind Obama
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:55 Allahpundit
10:56
Ed: 
Hillary now leads by 181,000 votes.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:56 Ed
10:57
Ed: 
I notice that Michelle Obama didn't arrange the people behindBarack this time.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:57 Ed
10:58
Ed: 
I won't take a dime, but I'll take 125 large from Jack Abramoff's old firm.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:58 Ed
10:59
Ed: 
"Who the hell gave you a dime?"   "Everyone!"
Tuesday April 22, 2008 10:59 Ed
11:02
Ed: 
Andrea's in the house!
Tuesday April 22, 2008 11:02 Ed
11:03
[Comment From knatknat: ] 
Two decades of public service?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 11:03 knat
11:04
Ed: 
He started as a community organizer out of law school
Tuesday April 22, 2008 11:04 Ed
11:04
[Comment From MHMH: ] 
but what does the handwritten shirt on the bald guy behind obama say?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 11:04 MH
11:04
Ed: 
He's too cheap to buy a real campaign shirt
Tuesday April 22, 2008 11:04 Ed
11:05
Ed: 
He's bitter and clinging to his money
Tuesday April 22, 2008 11:05 Ed
11:14
Ed: 
Well, folks, this looks like it's about over for the evening...
Tuesday April 22, 2008 11:14 Ed
11:14
Ed: 
looks like Hillary has a reason to keep moving forward ....
Tuesday April 22, 2008 11:14 Ed
11:15
Ed: 
and the Dems have even more questions about Obama.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 11:15 Ed
11:15
Ed: 
Thanks Andrea!
Tuesday April 22, 2008 11:15 Ed
11:16
Allahpundit: 
Nighty night everyone.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 11:16 Allahpundit
11:16
Ed: 
(and thirdwaveDave)
Tuesday April 22, 2008 11:16 Ed
11:16
Thank you for reading today.              

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