Talk politics with Stephanie Grace

(07/15/2008)

10:35

Stephanie Grace:

Hi, everyone. Welcome to my first-ever live chat.
The topic du jour is the busy fall election season, with fascinating races for School Board, D.A., Congress, Senate, and of course, President. I’m also happy to talk about the many pols who won’t be on the ballot: Gov. Bobby Jindal, Mayor Ray Nagin, U.S. Sen. David Vitter, and so on. So send in those questions. I'll be live at noon.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 10:35 Stephanie Grace

11:58

Stephanie Grace:

Ok, here goes. Lots of good questions so far.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 11:58 Stephanie Grace

11:59

Stephanie Grace:

michael - I think he could provide some real excitement for a party that badly needs it, and I wouldn't underestimate the diversity angle. I think some of his socially conservative views could be a real problem, though. McCain needs to get a lot of the moderate, independent vote and things like recent signing of the intelligent design bill could really hurt.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 11:59 Stephanie Grace

11:59

[Comment From MichaelMichael: ]

Hello, Stephanie. Am I the only one who thinks Jindal as a vp nominee benefits Obama greatly?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 11:59 Michael

11:59

Stephanie Grace:

oops, first time. i published the answer before the question!

Tuesday July 15, 2008 11:59 Stephanie Grace

12:00

[Comment From KristenKristen: ]

How do you feel about the public sentiment that picking between Obama and McCain is like picking the lesser of two evils?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:00 Kristen

12:00

Stephanie Grace:

I’m not sure that’s a universal feeling. Anyone else have any thoughts on that?

On the Dem. side, there’s still tremendous excitement over Obama, even if some of his supporters are scratching their heads at some of his recent policy statements. Actually, I think lots of Dems are happy their candidate seems like he’s playing to win.

I know that social conservatives don’t like McCain, but it seems to me he was the only Republican with the potential to attract enough independents to win in what’s clearly going to be a Democratic year. He still has the maverick reputation despite his newfound support for much of the Bush agenda. His sense of humor helps, I think, although the man really needs to learn how to read from a teleprompter.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:00 Stephanie Grace

12:02

[Comment From HebertHebert: ]

Recently you noted that Katrina is the issue that McCain can use to distance himself from President Bush and that it will likely not be a strong suit for Obama. I would like to suggest that if Obama pushed the issue hard and educated people on the nature of the Federal Flood and the other natural disaters along the coast he could trump McCain on this issue.McCain proceeds as if it is over and was over in August of 2005. If Obama comes forth with a real plan to properly rebuild entire regions of the area he could show McCain's real plans for the area which amount to doing not much of anything or four more years of Bushism. Thoughts?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:02 Hebert

12:03

Stephanie Grace:

Hi Hebert, and thanks. I think John Kennedy's going to have a rough time of it. Landrieu has used her position on appropriations to great advantage, and it plays to her strength as a politician -- and away from her weakness, which is talking about ideology. Also, Louisiana voters seem to be pretty savvy about these things. They expect government to deliver, and they know that the LA delegation is horribly weakened.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:03 Stephanie Grace

12:04

Stephanie Grace:

oops again. this was the question i was answering from hebert...

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:04 Stephanie Grace

12:04

[Comment From HebertHebert: ]

First let me say that I always enjoy your columns. Is it me or does John Kennedy's campaign seem a little flat currently? He seems to be running a pre-Katrina campaign while Senator Landrieu just plows ahead working to rebuild Louisiana. Your thoughts?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:04 Hebert

12:04

Stephanie Grace:

Kennedy is at his best when he has a foil, someone like Bob Odom or Don Hines or Kathleen Blanco. He doesn't have any specific beef with Landrieu, so that hurts too.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:04 Stephanie Grace

12:06

[Comment From Nolajohn1Nolajohn1: ]

Realistically, what are the chances that Dollar Bill is going to get re-elected?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:06 Nolajohn1

12:06

Stephanie Grace:

After last time, I’d never say never. There are just so many candidates in this election, and so many variables. The people who’ve done polls still think he’s got a base that could be as high as 30 percent, more than enough to make a runoff in a large field. If he draws the right runoff opponent, he could win the Dem. primary, and that would be it. There’s certainly going to be a push among those who don’t want him elected to make sure he has a strong runoff opponent. James Carter, who decided to qualify at the last minute, was heavily recruited for just that reason.

I’m still amazed that nobody well known qualified to run as an independent in the general election. That would have provided a firewall against Jefferson.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:06 Stephanie Grace

12:06

Do you think Bill Jefferson can win reelection to Congress?
yes

( 31% )

( 69% )

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:06

12:08

[Comment From Deena JonesDeena Jones: ]

What is your take on Gov. Jindals veteos? The Times P. is not saying much on this subject, but newspapers around the state are buzzing. I think there are some serious issues regarding the Governor that need to be exposed.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:08 Deena Jones

12:08

Stephanie Grace:

Deena: We're still sorting through the vetoes, but I think it's cause for concern. Everyone talks about earmarks being bridges to nowhere, but that's only part of the story. Some of the groups that won't get money are doing really good work, like Unity for the Homeless. Plus, it sounds like once again tream Jindal did a bad job of communicating with legislators. So he ended up just picking a bunch of fights that might come back to haunt him.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:08 Stephanie Grace

12:10

[Comment From MichelleMichelle: ]

Do you think this will be a democratic year because of George W's actions since taking office.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:10 Michelle

12:11

Stephanie Grace:

Michelle: absolutely. There's so much frustration out there in the country over the administration's policies on global warming, treatment of terrorist suspects, the war and of course the economy. It's even looking like Dems are making big gains in some southern states, like Virginia, and Mississippi Senate race is even potentially close. Louisiana is still McCain country, though.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:11 Stephanie Grace

12:11

[Comment From JudyJudy: ]

Hi Stephanie! Two words: Helena Moreno? What's up with that?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:11 Judy

12:11

Stephanie Grace:

Well, let's start with the fact that you know here name. And she hasn't even bought any ads yet.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:11 Stephanie Grace

12:12

Stephanie Grace:

In such a fractured field, who knows? She, unlike John Mccain, can use a teleprompter.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:12 Stephanie Grace

12:14

[Comment From JohnJohn: ]

I am concerned about the Congressional race and its implications for New Orleans and what the "rest of the country" perceives as a lack of leadership at the local (Nagin, Thomas, etc.....), state (Shephard, Duplessis, etc....) and federal level (Jefferson). We keep electing officials that either end up in jail or indicted, or lack a true vision for the future? I hope that this falls elections produce candidates that can really move us forward - any thoughts?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:14 John

12:14

Stephanie Grace:

This is a real concern. In 2006, Jefferson was just under investigation. Now he's indicted, and his whole family has been connected to all sorts of alleged schemes. If he's reelected again, it'll be harder to explain away this time. And it will make it harder to seek the rest of the country's sympathy.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:14 Stephanie Grace

12:15

[Comment From WesWes: ]

I was at Moreno's announcement, and from her remarks I was certain that she would run as a independent. I don't expect her to finish better then 4th or 5th in the primary.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:15 Wes

12:15

Stephanie Grace:

Wes -- what I thought was most interesting was her support for the surge. She's clearly aiming for the right-leaning voters.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:15 Stephanie Grace

12:16

[Comment From HunterHunter: ]

What are your thoughts on the next election for mayor in New Orleans. Any bets on who will run?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:16 Hunter

12:17

Stephanie Grace:

Well, we all thought James Carter would run for mayor until he qualified for Congress. So far I'm hearing that Arnie Fielkow, Austin Badon, Ed Murray and John Georges are interested. Forgive me if I'm leaving anyone out. Anyone want to throw out any other names?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:17 Stephanie Grace

12:18

[Comment From WesWes: ]

I agree, I actually chuckled when she said that because I knew any longshot she had of making the Democratic run-off went up in smoke.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:18 Wes

12:18

[Comment From 1,000 of Home Decor Items1,000 of Home Decor Items: ]

Mayor Landrum-Johnson, Mayor Midura

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:18 1,000 of Home Decor Items

12:19

Stephanie Grace:

I think Keva Landrum-Johnson deserves a big thank you from this city. She's really calmed things down over at the DA's office.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:19 Stephanie Grace

12:20

[Comment From OzzieOzzie: ]

I was wondering how many judgesships in the metro area have someone running against an incumbent?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:20 Ozzie

12:21

[Comment From TommyTommy: ]

Any comments / insights on why only one candidate qualified for and was subsequently elected for open bench seats in Jefferson and Orleans?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:21 Tommy

12:21

Stephanie Grace:

I haven’t done a count, but an awful lot were uncontested. These are hard campaigns to run, because they’re not issue-based. Unless a sitting judge has been disciplined, issued some strange rulings or behaved badly, it’s hard to draw distinctions.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:21 Stephanie Grace

12:22

Who do you think will prevail in the U.S. Senate race?
Mary Landrieu, incumbent

( 35% )

John Kennedy

( 65% )

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:22

12:22

[Comment From BrentBrent: ]

Stephanie, which La. state legislators do you feel are most at risk of being successfully recalled by their constituents?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:22 Brent

12:22

Stephanie Grace:

I don't really expect to see many recalls, if any. It's actually not that easy to do.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:22 Stephanie Grace

12:23

[Comment From WesWes: ]

Juan Lafonta isn't running? I'll be very shocked if he doesn't.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:23 Wes

12:23

Stephanie Grace:

He's clearly ambitious. He's got some problems w/ his fellow black caucus members, though.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:23 Stephanie Grace

12:23

[Comment From JudyJudy: ]

I would vote for Keva Landrum-Johnson for mayor.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:23 Judy

12:25

[Comment From BrianBrian: ]

Any advice on the upcoming July 19 school board props on the renewal of milages?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:25 Brian

12:25

Stephanie Grace:

It seems to have pretty universal support. They generally put these things on off-ballots so people who will vote against all taxes don't show up.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:25 Stephanie Grace

12:26

[Comment From BrentBrent: ]

Now that Pampy Barre has been sentenced, do you anticipate any further investigation into Una Anderson? Also, what do you think about the timing of the allegations? Do you have any scoop for us on that story?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:26 Brent

12:28

Stephanie Grace:

Not sure, but the U.S. Attorneys made it very clear that they're still following the evidence. In general, even when there's a contribution and then a contract, as in this case, it's hard to prove quid pro quo.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:28 Stephanie Grace

12:29

[Comment From mattermatter: ]

Stephanie, in the 2nd CD election, who do you think is the most "progressive" of the candidates? (Use whatever definition you wish.) Given your remark about Moreno supporting the "surge" I guess it's not her!

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:29 matter

12:30

Stephanie Grace:

So far I haven't heard much in the way of debate over issues. I think they'll all stick close to the Dem. line. Jefferson, however, did a good job of tagging Karen Carter as a social liberal last time out (although he also had a pretty progressive voting record). Those issues might come up again, since some African-American dems are more socially conservative. too soo to say yet.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:30 Stephanie Grace

12:31

[Comment From WesWes: ]

Very true about Lafonta. I see the Democratic primary going as , Richmond, Jefferson, Lee, Carter, Moreno and Smith. Do you agree?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:31 Wes

12:32

Stephanie Grace:

As I wrote this morning, I think much of the anti-Bill Jefferson Orleans Parish vote will be go to Carter or Richmond. It will be interesting to see them face off. Both are considered real up and comers.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:32 Stephanie Grace

12:33

[Comment From mattermatter: ]

Ok, if you can't give an answer, who are the candidates, amongst the Dem. field, who are farthest to the left, in general?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:33 matter

12:33

Stephanie Grace:

I just don't think we know yet. Do you have some thoughts on that?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:33 Stephanie Grace

12:34

[Comment From Clark ThompsonClark Thompson: ]

I'm glad to see that James Carter threw his hat into the ring. Does he have the $ and support to make a real run at it?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:34 Clark Thompson

12:35

Stephanie Grace:

The people (including the big donors) who backed Karen Carter last time will be going somewhere, and I’m thinking that James Carter is their likely choice. Cedric Richmond may be in the mix too. Of course, that wasn’t enough to put Karen C. over the top, but there were some pretty unique circumstances two years ago.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:35 Stephanie Grace

12:35

Will Gov. Jindal be McCainn's vice presidential nominee?
yes

( 0% )

( 100% )

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:35

12:37

[Comment From Afraid to Walk the StreetAfraid to Walk the Street: ]

Who do you think has the leg up in the DA's race? Who is backing who? Where can the prospective candidates look for their strongest support?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:37 Afraid to Walk the Street

12:37

Stephanie Grace:

It’s clearly going to be a three-person race between Ralph Capitelli, Leon Cannizzaro and Jason Williams. Both Capitelli and Cannizzaro have raised lots of money. Williams got a later start.
I’m not quite ready to handicap, but I think that one obvious question here is what role race will play (Capitelli and Cannizzaro are white, Williams is African-American). Will Capitelli and Cannizzaro be viewed as trying to take a political prize away from African-Americans, or will concerns about crime take precedence?
People often ask whether I think New Orleans might elect a white mayor. I think we’ll have a better idea once we see how this race turns out.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:37 Stephanie Grace

12:38

[Comment From 1,000 of Home Decor Items1,000 of Home Decor Items: ]

How are New Orleans' post-flood demographic shifts playing out in local politics, would you say? What further changes in the shape of local electoral politics do you expect in the next 5 or so years as the population begins to settle long-term?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:38 1,000 of Home Decor Items

12:38

Stephanie Grace:

It seems as if the active electorate is going to be about evenly split between black and white (with more "others" than in the past). That really does change the dynamics. In recent years, many citywide elections featured two strong black candidates, with whites as the swing vote. Now, there's no settled dynamic.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:38 Stephanie Grace

12:39

Will Gov. Jindal be McCain's vice presidential nominee?
yes

( 17% )

( 83% )

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:39

12:40

Stephanie Grace:

Here's an interesting thought. New Orleans now has a majority white council. James Carter represents a racially split district. If he goes to Congress, there's a chance the council could have five white members out of seven. That would never have happened pre-Katrina.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:40 Stephanie Grace

12:41

Stephanie Grace:

It's interesting to watch the tension between the two Cynthias and some of the other council members and the administration over how resources are being allocated between more damaged v. less damaged districts. It seems to me that's a remnant of the lack of firm direction immediately after the storm.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:41 Stephanie Grace

12:42

[Comment From sarahsarah: ]

Although I think James Carter would do a terrific job as the 102nd Representative, I don't want to lose him as a councilperson. I'm afraid we'll get another Jackie Clarkson clone. Who do you see running for his council seat if he wins the congressional election?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:42 sarah

12:43

Stephanie Grace:

I'd start with Kristin Palmer, his runoff opponent last time, but there are plenty of good candidates in that district. Algiers and the Quarter are pretty politically active, obviously.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:43 Stephanie Grace

12:43

Stephanie Grace:

Nobody's asked about Nagin or Vitter. Are we tired of talking about them?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:43 Stephanie Grace

12:45

[Comment From SteveSteve: ]

I wanted to thank Jindal for his veto of the recent proposal by the legislature to raise their pay by 123% - I (along with most Louisianians) think he di dthe right thing from everything that I have read. This did open my eyes to the process and made me realize how bills could get slipped through/passed without the Governor monitoring the situation. I hope Jindal learned his lesson from this and we can move forward to makle the state a better place - and then (and only then) might the legislators come back for a raise.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:45 Steve

12:47

Stephanie Grace:

I think Jindal had to do what he did. Not sure he's not overreacting with all these line-item vetoes, which seem to be aimed at proving he's tough. He really does have some fence-mending to do w/ legislators. He did promise them that he wouldn't veto their raise. They're not going to forget. Someday, Jindal's going to need them.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:47 Stephanie Grace

12:47

[Comment From 1,000 of Home Decor Items1,000 of Home Decor Items: ]

Yes, tired of them both.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:47 1,000 of Home Decor Items

12:48

Stephanie Grace:

You're talking about Nagin and Vitter? I think you're not alone.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:48 Stephanie Grace

12:50

Stephanie Grace:

Vitter's up for reelection in 2010. He could face some stiff competition in the Republican primary (Jay Dardenne, Charles Boustany, Tony Perkins), and from Charlie Melancon in the general. He's exactly the type of Dem. who wins statewide in LA. Cajun, conservative, and at least somewhat entertaining.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:50 Stephanie Grace

12:50

[Comment From WesWes: ]

Stephanie, you think that Nagin might launch a audacious bid for Vitter's seat in 2010?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:50 Wes

12:51

Stephanie Grace:

You never know with him. He seemed to have given serious thought to running for gov. last year. One problem with Senate is that he wouldn't be able to just transfer his money, because federal campaign finance laws are more restrictive than state laws. There are other problems, of course.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:51 Stephanie Grace

12:52

[Comment From BrentBrent: ]

Last I heard Nagin had accumulated quite a campaign fund. What office, if any, do you think he will seek next?

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:52 Brent

12:52

Stephanie Grace:

Some people thought he would run for Congress, but I always thought he'd see that as a step down. It takes a long time to rise to the top in the House of Reps.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:52 Stephanie Grace

12:54

[Comment From NOLAchix0rNOLAchix0r: ]

I think the draw of Obama is that he's mobilizing the younger vote - the 18s to 24s who don't normally vote. (speaking for me and my peers since I'm in that age group)

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:54 NOLAchix0r

12:55

Stephanie Grace:

It's interesting. I've spoken to younger voters from around the country, and they've called Katrina one of the defining moments of their lives. I think we older folks missed that.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:55 Stephanie Grace

12:56

[Comment From WesWes: ]

Nagin has close to 250K on hand, a good start if he wants to run for a statewide office.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:56 Wes

12:56

Stephanie Grace:

If he does anything I think it would be statewide, again, because he wouldn't want to take a step down.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:56 Stephanie Grace

12:57

[Comment From BrentBrent: ]

Thanks for doing this Stephanie. Nice way to spend lunch.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:57 Brent

12:58

Stephanie Grace:

Thanks! It was fun. And great questions! Sorry about the technical difficulties back at the beginning. I look forward to doing this again as the campaigns progress.

Tuesday July 15, 2008 12:58 Stephanie Grace

12:58