FL/Michigan Live Blog: Afternoon Session

4:14

TalkLeft:

Hi everyone, the afternoon session is about to begin. Big Tent Democrat and I will live blog here.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:14 TalkLeft

4:17	Who Did the Best Job This Morning? Joyner ( 28% ) Wexler ( 17% ) Bonior ( 1% ) Blanchard ( 53% ) Saturday May 31, 2008 4:17

4:18

TalkLeft:

A poll is up for who did the best this morning. I'm on my desktop now so there will be more polls and maybe some images and links to other information.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:18 TalkLeft

4:19

BTD:

I am glad that Chuck Todd and NBC noticed that Carl Levin is enraged that the DNC did NOT ENFORE the rules against New Hampshire and that is why Michigan moved up. That is the long forgotten story about the ROOLZ are ROOLZ people like Donna Brazile, Because Carl Levin is saying no, Donna you did not says RULES ARE RULES when it came tio New Hamshire. Unless your mama told you to "follow the rules, except if you are New Hampshire" - then you are a hypocrite. And you used your mother to forward your hypocrisy. and that is what enrages people about donna Brazile, her lack of honesty. she can shill for anyone and anything she wants, but to falsely pretend she stands on the high ground is what rankles. Her calling the Clinton camp cheaters was an outrage and a disgrace. She is clearly the most divisive figure in this entire process. Even more so than the candidates in my view. She needs to step aside.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:19 BTD

4:19

TalkLeft:

Here's a list of the 30 Committee members who will decide.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:19 TalkLeft

4:20

TalkLeft:

If you missed our thread this morning, BTD tends to give his opinions while I tend to report on the proceedings.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:20 TalkLeft

4:21

BTD:

BTD gives his opinions . . . understatement of the year.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:21 BTD

4:24

BTD:

BTW, who did the best job this morning? Hands down, Bill Nelson. I know J was limiting it to the campoaing reps, but Bill Nelson was extraordinarily good today.

As for the campaign reps, Blanchard did the best. He had a terrible case and made it rather appealing. Quite a good job by him. As an attorney, I have to admire that.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:24 BTD

4:24

TalkLeft:

I thought Blanchard was better. Nelson was good too though. Wexler was an embarrassment.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:24 TalkLeft

4:24

[Image]

dearobama2.jpg View

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:24

4:26

[Image]

no5050.jpg View

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:26

4:27

TalkLeft:

They are 10 minutes behind schedule.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:27 TalkLeft

4:28

TalkLeft:

Back to Ohio is live-blogging here.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:28 TalkLeft

4:29

BTD:

Someone asked me if I thought the FL/MI primaries were as valid as other contests. I believe the Florida primary was much more valid than MOST of the contests in this campaign. It was more valid than each and every cacus held in any state. That is what is so funny to hear from the Obama supporters on the Committee and witnessess that were arguing about lost votes. Barack Obama will likely be the nominee BECAUSE of "lost votes" - votes lost by using the cuasucs system.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:29 BTD

4:29

TalkLeft:

My views on Michigan are accessible at this link.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:29 TalkLeft

4:34	Which Committee Member Asked the Best Questions? Hartina Flournoy ( 63% ) Donald Fowler ( 1% ) Alice Huffman ( 10% ) Donna Brazile ( 7% ) Harold Ickes ( 12% ) Other ( 7% ) Saturday May 31, 2008 4:34

4:34

BTD:

Someone asked about the exit poll argument for allocating the Michigan delegates. The argument is this, the complete exit polling of the Michigan voters had Clinton 45, Obama 36 and no other candidate breaking the 15% threshold. that essentially is the argument for the 69-59 split. for choosing delegates, this is simply not possible under ANY rule that exists today. this would be making up the rules, something donna Brazile purports to abhor.

Don Fowler made this point. The RBC has absolutely no power to do this,m unless they make uo this power. What the RBC can do is seat 50% of the MI delegation as reflected in the vote.

In addiiton, the Obama request that there be an equal splut is ALSO in violation of the DNC rules. They would be making this up.

If anyone supposedly cares about the rules, the 69-59 proposal and the 64-64 proposals simply do not conform to the rules.

Carl Levin's argument is give me a NH waiver, but that does not provide a rule for the allocation he is asking for. The rules base dresult should be seat half of the MI delegates, based on the primary results.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:34 BTD

4:35

BTD:

Rachel Maddow notices the Michigan problem. Michigan has no real argument for a waiver or safe harbor whereas Florida does.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:35 BTD

4:42

TalkLeft:

Let's see what you all have to say while we're waiting.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:42 TalkLeft

4:42

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Would you be surprised if Florida was seating at full strength, in every way, and Michigan was penalized?

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:42 Guest

4:43

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

did anyone understand the MI case where exit polls suggested Obama got 75% off the uncommitted vote,so they decided they wanted to give him ALL t he uncommitted vote plus a few of Clinton's too

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:43 Guest

4:43

[Comment From Ar-tooAr-too: ]

That image pop-up feature's pretty cool.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:43 Ar-too

4:44

TalkLeft:

Blanchard and Fourtnoy are winning our polls so far for best presenter and best committee questioner.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:44 TalkLeft

4:44

BTD:

I would be surpised if florida was seated at full strength. Ickes made the Florida deal yesterday. He said Florida was in violation instead of arguing that Florida was enittled to a waiver. That was done by the Clinton campaign yesterday.

Michigan will get half because Florida got half.

and when I say half, I mean half votes. The big fight now is over what the allocation for Michigan will be.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:44 BTD

4:51

TalkLeft:

I think they will seat all the florida delegates at 1/2 vote each which gives Hillary all of the popular vote she won there.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:51 TalkLeft

4:56

BTD:

Chuck Todd says that the way that the RBC will or can accept the State Party Delegate Allocation Plan by saying they do not accept the primary but DO accept the the State Party Primary allocation. Excuse me Chuck, there is not a rule on the books that aloows the RBC to do that. that would be extralegal. Can not be done and claim to be within the rules.

Which just goes to show you the RULZ were just a word for these people, They NEVER cared about them. and they sure do not now.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:56 BTD

4:56

[Comment From ChrisMChrisM: ]

So what backroom deal is being made right now as we all wait over 30 minutes past when the recess was supposed to end?

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:56 ChrisM

4:56

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

if they seat the entire delegation from Florida with half votes..what does the magic number become?

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:56 Guest

4:57

TalkLeft:

Try to hold down the comments in the main tread since more than 200 overloads the thread.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:57 TalkLeft

4:59

BTD:

People ask where the phrase "fair reflection" comes from. Actually it comes from the DNC rules. It is not a theoretical construct.

Saturday May 31, 2008 4:59 BTD

5:00

[Comment From indy womanindy woman: ]

Can they seat Michigan with 1/2 votes and per their rules assign Clinton 1/2 of 73 delegates, and seat 1/2 of 55 as uncommitted

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:00 indy woman

5:02

BTD:

If the RBC seat the FL and MI dleegations with half votes, by my math, the Magic Niumber becomes 2118 by my math..

Indywoman ask if the can seat the Michigan delegates with half votes. My own view is that they can.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:02 BTD

5:03

BTD:

SteveT ask what is Hillary trying to accomplish with FL/MI? At this point, I believe she is just trying to argue that she got them seated. And that means something. I wish she would have argued for FAIR treatment for Florida. more than for seating fo Michigan but that is just me.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:03 BTD

5:04

BTD:

FleetAdmiralJ asks can they decide each of FL and MI separately, The answer is yes. Indeed, they can choose to decide NEITHER today. they do not lose jurisdiction until the Credentials Committee is assmebled in late June.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:04 BTD

5:06

BTD:

WS asks who gets to pick uncommitted? these are being selected in District Conventions and most have alread been selected, almost all going for Obama. there are 19 more uncommitted delegates to be chosen at the Michigan State Convention

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:06 BTD

5:11

TalkLeft:

It looks like they are making a deal in the back room.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:11 TalkLeft

5:11

TalkLeft:

So much for the transparency of the Democratic party.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:11 TalkLeft

5:12

TalkLeft:

If they come out with an announcement of a deal instead of debate, I'll be pretty angry.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:12 TalkLeft

5:12	How Will You Feel if They Come Out and Announce a Solution Great ( 35% ) Angry as Hell ( 22% ) Depends on the Solution ( 43% ) Saturday May 31, 2008 5:12

5:13

TalkLeft:

New poll on how you will feel if they announce a solution when they come out.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:13 TalkLeft

5:15	If They come out with a resolution on Florida, what will it be? Seat all Fla delegates w/ full vote ( 27% ) Seat all Fla delegates w/ half vote ( 66% ) Seat half of FL Delegates ( 6% ) Other ( 1% ) Saturday May 31, 2008 5:15

5:15

TalkLeft:

Also a poll on if they announce solution as to FLA, what will it be?

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:15 TalkLeft

5:16

BTD:

I believe they will have a debate, but the deal will have been alreeady struck, Unlike Jeralyn, Ithink that is just fine. It ven makes sense. Let everyone speak for the record and then announce their deal.

I assume the hold up remains the allocation of the Michigan delegates and it would not surprise me at alll if Don Fowler is the holdup. Fowler stated unequivocally that just picking a "fair number" out of a hat for the allocation of the Michigan delegations is simply not allowed by the rules. The Obama folks will NOt agree to a half vote for the exisitng delegation based on the MI primary. I assume they REALLY do not want Clinton to be able to claim to have won the popular vote. Clearly the 18 delegate margin vs the 10 delegate margin can not be what is worrying him.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:16 BTD

5:17	If they come out with resolution on MI, what will it be? Seat all Delegates 73/55, half vote ( 32% ) Seat all Delegates 69/59, half vote ( 30% ) Seat all Delegates, 50/50, half vote ( 19% ) One of above with full votes ( 7% ) None of Above ( 11% ) Saturday May 31, 2008 5:17

5:17

TalkLeft:

Poll on Michigan up now too. They have to be finalizing a deal. It's the only reason to keep the jury waiting so long.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:17 TalkLeft

5:22

BTD:

joannenelon ask what will they be voting on? they will vote on the ausmann petition AND the Michigan Demcratic Party petition. They could also assume the positions argued by the interventions by the FDP, the clinton campaign and the Obama campaign.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:22 BTD

5:25

TalkLeft:

I think they are going to come out and announce the resolution and not debate a thing or share who was for what. They will pretend to all be unified. They will praise both campaigns for agreeing to their deal.
[Update: I sure was wrong on this one]

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:25 TalkLeft

5:25

[Comment From GuestGuest: ]

Could they come up with a solution that has not been suggested here today?

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:25 Guest

5:25

BTD:

The decision does not have to be unanimous, just a majority of the quorum.

the popular vote effect is already calculated in the RCP numbers and in my own calculations. I have counted these votes myself, along with ALL of the caucuses (where there was no primary) already.

Chuck Todd says the 73-55 split for Michigan is dead. I wonder under the rules how they can justify anything BUT that? The ROOLZ do not matter. they never cared about them.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:25 BTD

5:27

BTD:

to me they can bo 0 or 73-55 (with half votes) under the rules, they can not just makje up a number. Don Fowler is telling them that now. IF 73-55 is dead, then there will be no resolution imo.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:27 BTD

5:27

TalkLeft:

My Michigan prediction: Prediction: 69/59, all seated, half votes Hillary gets her popular vote.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:27 TalkLeft

5:27

BTD:

Jeralyn, your prediction MAY be correct, but it highlights how little the rules actually mean here. there is NO RULE that permits that result. NONE.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:27 BTD

5:29

TalkLeft:

I agree -- I'm just way more jaded and cynical than you are. You are hoping for truth, justice and the American Way.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:29 TalkLeft

5:31

BTD:

On the contrary. I am completely cynical. I have been saying for months now that all this so called concern about the rules was complete BS from Obama supporters and the RBC. They NEVER CARED about the rules. If they did, NH would have been slapped down.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:31 BTD

5:37

TalkLeft:

We'll be going to a new thread when they announce their deal.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:37 TalkLeft

5:38

[Comment From LahdeeLahdee: ]

Just over an hour and a half late. Are there closed door/back room solutions on the way to the floor?

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:38 Lahdee

5:38

TalkLeft:

Yes, I think they will come out and announce a deal. They are probably arguing over the language in the statement they will read to us.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:38 TalkLeft

5:39

BTD:

IF they announce their deal. I think they want to do the 69-59 for Michigan and they are strugggling for some way to explain HOW they can do that within the rules.

they have been VERY sanctimonious about the rules.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:39 BTD

5:39

TalkLeft:

It will be a big unity speech and they will thank the candidates and the state parties for agreeing to it. The question is, what will it be?

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:39 TalkLeft

5:43

BTD:

CNN reports a lot of disgruntled people about the fact tthat this is happening behind closed doors. Hmmmm

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:43 BTD

5:43

TalkLeft:

Our new thread will be here. Comments there are disabled for now.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:43 TalkLeft

5:44

[Comment From SheilaSheila: ]

Republicans are videoing all the people at the sessions who are complaining about the behind closed doors, and already have the videos up on YouTube it was just announced on CNN...

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:44 Sheila

5:44

[Comment From gmogmo: ]

There's been some coverage about Stephanie Tubbs-Jones and Lanny Davis arguing with Ausman & FDNC; is it possible that a "deal" would be announced that satisfies the states, but that the campaigns won't accept? (ie it's "resolved", but no "Unity Pony?")

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:44 gmo

5:44

[Comment From LeftyFanLeftyFan: ]

They'll spend most of the time patting themselves on the back. Be prepared to be overwhelmed with the words 'unity' and 'extraordinary'

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:44 LeftyFan

5:44

BTD:

I am now wondering if there is not a huge snag now. Becuase this is beginning to look bad. they cannot even have a show debate at this rate.

There may be a real problem. and clearly it is about Michigan.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:44 BTD

5:45

[Comment From stxabuelastxabuela: ]

Well, BTD, the DNC is following the ROOLZ, not the rules. Like Jeralyn, I'm also very cynical.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:45 stxabuela

5:46

[Video file]

YouTube: -Znob6zUnIM Play

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:46

5:47

TalkLeft:

Donna Brazile video just uploaded above. If you see others you think we should post, submit them via the message in the live blog software.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:47 TalkLeft

5:48

TalkLeft:

Obama's resigning from his church. I have 10 messages saying so.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:48 TalkLeft

5:49

BTD:

Hmmm, that was my fault because I posted the video of Pflager, or so my e-mailers have told me.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:49 BTD

5:50

TalkLeft:

I just posted a new thread on Obama. Please put those comments there.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:50 TalkLeft

5:52

TalkLeft:

No, the right wing blogs were on it same time as you. And didn't No Quarter have it first?

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:52 TalkLeft

5:54	Does Obama's resignation from Trinity help him? Yes, better late than never ( 16% ) No, too little too late ( 80% ) Other ( 4% ) Saturday May 31, 2008 5:54

5:55

TalkLeft:

New poll on obama's resignation from his church.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:55 TalkLeft

5:57

TalkLeft:

This thread is closing. We'll have a new one when they come back out. There's a new open thread at TL.

Thanks everyone for hanging in. Come back and join us when they start at the new thread.

Saturday May 31, 2008 5:57 TalkLeft

5:57

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