Indiana and North Carolina(05/06/2008) 
5:29
Allahpundit: 
Test
Tuesday May 6, 2008 5:29 Allahpundit
5:36
Allahpundit: 
AP: Drudge says early exits show an easy win for Obama in NC, to no one's surprise.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 5:36 Allahpundit
5:39
Allahpundit: 
AP: 10% GOP crossover in Indiana if the exits are right...
Tuesday May 6, 2008 5:39 Allahpundit
5:45
Allahpundit: 
AP: Hmmmm: "

Voters from both states were spilt over the controversy surrounding Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, early exit polls suggest.

In Indiana, 49 percent of voters in the Democratic primary said the issue was not important, compared to 48 percernt who said it was an important factor in their vote.

In North Carolina 50 percent of voters said the Wright controversy was important, and 48 percent said it was not."


Tuesday May 6, 2008 5:45 Allahpundit
5:46
Allahpundit: 
AP: That's from CNN
Tuesday May 6, 2008 5:46 Allahpundit
5:48
Ed: 

hello everyone!


Tuesday May 6, 2008 5:48 Ed
5:48
Allahpundit: 
HuffPo says it's Hillary by 5 in Indiana and Obama by 12 in NC
Tuesday May 6, 2008 5:48 Allahpundit
5:51
Ed: 
Those results would resolve nothing, as Purple Fury says.  
Tuesday May 6, 2008 5:51 Ed
5:55
[Comment From MikeMike: ] 
If exit polls overestimate Obama by 3 as they have tended to do in the past (haven't they?) then you get HRC by 8 and BHO by 9...not a bad outcome, and will stoke fears of racial polarization
Tuesday May 6, 2008 5:55 Mike
5:56
Ed: 
I'm wondering if that dynamic will hold in North Carolina.   It might in Indiana.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 5:56 Ed
5:58
[Comment From YoosaionYoosaion: ] 
How much does Hillary have to lose by to call it quits within a week?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 5:58 Yoosaion
5:58
Ed: 
I don't think the number exists.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 5:58 Ed
5:59
[Comment From RandyRandy: ] 
If she wins Indy and then WVa and Ky by double digits, the same questions will still be there.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 5:59 Randy
6:00
Ed: 
Obama has to lose this nomination now.   Those states are widely expected to go to Hillary.   NC is Hillary's best chance of changing minds.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:00 Ed
6:03
How much does Obama win NC by?
1-4 points
 ( 9% )
5-8
 ( 50% )
9-12
 ( 18% )
12 or more
 ( 4% )
Hillary wins in an upset
 ( 19% )

Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:03 
6:04
[Comment From William AmosWilliam Amos: ] 
From ABC news bad news for Barack. 3/4 of last minute voters deceided late and Wright was a big factor http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=4798314&page=1
Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:04 William Amos
6:06
Ed: 
William, that's interesting.   Only 25% decided this week?   Who does that help?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:06 Ed
6:11
[Comment From Christopher CalandroChristopher Calandro: ] 
What do we know about NC turnout by race? When will get solid data?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:11 Christopher Calandro
6:11
Ed: 

According to ABC, 31% of the turnout is African-American

 


Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:11 Ed
6:11
Ed: 
in North Carolina
Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:11 Ed
6:13
Ed: 
I think Obama wanted a bigger turnout, but that's still higher than in most states
Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:13 Ed
6:16
How much does Hillary win Indiana by?
1-4 points
 ( 12% )
5-8
 ( 41% )
9-12
 ( 40% )
13 or more
 ( 4% )
None: Obama wins in an upset
 ( 2% )

Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:16 
6:23
Allahpundit: 
Crack-up: "Nearly six in ten Obama supporters in Indiana say they would be dissatisfied if Clinton were the nominee -- that's (I believe) the high percentage of Obama supporters who have ever said that. In both IN and NC, two thirds of Clinton supporters say they'd be dissatisfied if Obama were the nominee -- I believe that's the highest number recorded for that question, too."
Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:23 Allahpundit
6:24
Allahpundit: 
Obama wins 90+% of the black vote in both states
Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:24 Allahpundit
6:27
Ed: 

Depending on the split among whites, Hillary could still make it close in NC


Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:27 Ed
6:38
[Comment From mikeybossmikeyboss: ] 
cat got your thumbs, guys?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:38 mikeyboss
6:38
Ed: 

Sorry, eating dinner

Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:38 Ed
6:39
Ed: 
reading along, tho
Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:39 Ed
6:39
[Comment From doubleplusundeaddoubleplusundead: ] 
Hey Ed, is it lutefisk?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:39 doubleplusundead
6:40
Ed: 
Uff da!   No, homemade chicken enchiladas.   Yum.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:40 Ed
6:43
Ed: 
According to Fox, 48% of the voters in both states say that the Wright Stuff was at least somewhat important to their decision ....
Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:43 Ed
6:43
Ed: 
Of those, 69% in Indiana went to Hillary, 62% in NC went to Hillary
Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:43 Ed
6:46
[Comment From Larry WisconsinLarry Wisconsin: ] 
Thanks for the live blogging.... I knew you guys would be putting together something good for tonight. I'm here all evening!
Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:46 Larry Wisconsin
6:46
Ed: 
Thanks, Larry.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:46 Ed
6:52
[Comment From Dr.Cwac.CwacDr.Cwac.Cwac: ] 
101 of 5230 percincts reporting in Indiana......Hillary 69%, Obama 31%.....I know it's still early
Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:52 Dr.Cwac.Cwac
6:52
Ed: 

The polls close early in some precincts in Indiana


Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:52 Ed
6:54
[Comment From ColtsFanColtsFan: ] 
If Obama survives Ayers-gate, Rev Wright-gate, "capital-gains ignorance-gate," and "bitterness over guns and religion-gate," should conservatives just assume the inevitable, and just throw our money and time on maintaining our ground in Congress?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:54 ColtsFan
6:55
Ed: 
That's a much longer shot than the presidency
Tuesday May 6, 2008 6:55 Ed
7:00
Ed: 

Polls just closed in Indiana


Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:00 Ed
7:01
Ed: 
Hillary up 18 with 4% reporting in Indiana now that the polls have closed.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:01 Ed
7:03
Ed: 
Looks like about a 5% win in Indiana according to CNN's exit polls  for IN
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:03 Ed
7:07
Ed: 
She won men by 2%, women by 6%, and women comprised 55% of the vote
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:07 Ed
7:09
Ed: 
Fox says Obama got 71% of the under-30 vote in NC, Hillary got 71% of the 65+ vote
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:09 Ed
7:10
[Comment From Pat In MichiganPat In Michigan: ] 
hey ed, why not have he chatroom, like you do on your show?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:10 Pat In Michigan
7:10
Ed: 
Because this allows both Allahpundit & I to do the live   blog .....
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:10 Ed
7:11
Ed: 
and it's easier to respond to comments like this.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:11 Ed
7:13
Ed: 
9% of the IN precincts in, Hillary up 14%, a lot of these votes are from Ft Wayne
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:13 Ed
7:13
Allahpundit: 
Obama's spokesman Bill Burton sent out an e-mail a few minutes ago mentioning Operation Chaos.   They're spinning Indiana as a Republican victory -- and the exits say she did win among GOP voters 53/45 (and conservatives 65/35)
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:13 Allahpundit
7:14
Ed: 
Fox says exit polling shows Hillary wins by 4 in IN, but Brit Hume cautions that Obama underperforms against exit polling
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:14 Ed
7:16
[Comment From SarjexSarjex: ] 
Do you think Hillary would be changing her plans (ie: dropping out before the convention) regardless of her performance today?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:16 Sarjex
7:16
Ed: 
No.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:16 Ed
7:20
Ed: 
11% reporting in IN, Hill still up by 16 points and 20,000 votes.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:20 Ed
7:21
[Comment From SeanSean: ] 
Ed, have they counted the counties close to Chicago yet?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:21 Sean
7:22
Ed: 
No, they haven't yet
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:22 Ed
7:22
Allahpundit: 
A quick check of recent big state exit polls shows that this is the first time HRC won Republicans.   She tied with Obama in Ohio and the numbers weren't available for Pennsylvania.   He won Republicans in Texas.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:22 Allahpundit
7:22
Allahpundit: 
HRC usually wins conservatives, though.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:22 Allahpundit
7:24
Ed: 
Fox is saying that they will call the NC race as soon as the polls close
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:24 Ed
7:26
Ed: 
IN - 16% of the precincts reporting, Hillary up 234,000 and 14%, but the urban centers haven't really come in yet
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:26 Ed
7:30
Ed: 
Fox says that Obama won NC, strong support among voters 45 years old and younger
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:30 Ed
7:34
Ed: 
Just looked at CNN's exit poll -- looks like a double-digit  loss for HRC in NC
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:34 Ed
7:36
Ed: 
Obama wins men 56-40, women 54-42, women are 57% of the vote
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:36 Ed
7:36
Ed: 
so maybe 9-10 points for Obama
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:36 Ed
7:37
Ed: 
ugh, let me rethink that
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:37 Ed
7:37
Ed: 
that would look more like 14 points or so
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:37 Ed
7:38
Ed: 
The problem with exit polls in 2004 were early exit polls, not exit polling overall
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:38 Ed
7:41
Ed: 
Hillary has extended her lead in IN to 35,000 votes, 14%.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:41 Ed
7:44
[Comment From lukespapalukespapa: ] 
ed, is it 35,000 or 350,000??
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:44 lukespapa
7:44
Ed: 
39K right now
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:44 Ed
7:48
[Comment From SDSD: ] 
What do you think the networks are seeing that would prevent them from calling IN? I understand that the urban counties aren't done yet but isn't 40k votes a very big lead?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:48 SD
7:49
Ed: 
The Chicago suburbs in the northwest haven't begun tallying yet, either
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:49 Ed
7:56
[Comment From EntelechyEntelechy: ] 
Fred Barnes has just made and elitist ass of himself on Fox, calling the working class, those voting for Hillary, the low class. He couldn't stop laughing at his own elitist stupidity. He never realized how that hurt his party, and his own 'class'.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:56 Entelechy
7:56
Ed: 
I saw that, too.   Cringeworthy.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:56 Ed
7:59
Ed: 
Right now, with 34% of precincts reporting, Hillary leads by more than 50,000 and 14%.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 7:59 Ed
8:00
Ed: 
Indianapolis has started reporting (20% of precincts) but not Gary or South Bend.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:00 Ed
8:01
[Comment From Amanda CarpenterAmanda Carpenter: ] 
Hey, Ed! Just wanted to say hi. Lemme think of a question now. How many times do you think Hillary will mention HillaryClinton.com in her speech tonight?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:01 Amanda Carpenter
8:01
Ed: 
Hi, Amanda!   I put the number as ... 15.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:01 Ed
8:11
[Comment From ND Law Student in SBND Law Student in SB: ] 
CBS just called IN for Hillary
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:11 ND Law Student in SB
8:11
Ed: 
Interesting.   I'm surprised it took this long.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:11 Ed
8:14
Ed: 
Ron Paul has a grip on 8% and a third-place finish behind Mike Huckabee.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:14 Ed
8:16
[Comment From Thanos aka TarkThanos aka Tark: ] 
Ed: Is that IN or NC pct for RP?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:16 Thanos aka Tark
8:16
Ed: 
IN.   He's got 7% in NC, behind Huckabee there too.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:16 Ed
8:17
[Comment From p0s3rp0s3r: ] 
Can RP use his unspent Presidential campaign funds to his congressional run?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:17 p0s3r
8:18
Ed: 
I believe he can.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:18 Ed
8:18
[Comment From KirkKirk: ] 
Ed, do you think RP is going to run as a third party candidate? And if so, what affect do you think it would have in the general election?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:18 Kirk
8:18
Ed: 
Doubtful.   I don't think he can float an organization well enough to support it.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:18 Ed
8:23
Ed: 
47% of precincts reporting in IN, Hillary still up by 50,000
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:23 Ed
8:35
Ed: 
It's interesting in NC; the vote coming in is all from the urban areas.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:35 Ed
8:39
Ed: 
yes, there are more people there, but in Indiana it came in from the urban areas last.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:39 Ed
8:39
Ed: 
In NC, all the suburban and rural counties have barely reported, if ait all
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:39 Ed
8:44
[Comment From The FopThe Fop: ] 
I was a loyal Captains Quarters reader and poster for years. I tried to sign up for Hotair, but couldn't get in. I am bitter, very bitter.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:44 The Fop
8:45
Ed: 
Did you follow the instructions on my final CapQ post?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:45 Ed
8:46
[Comment From Pat In MichiganPat In Michigan: ] 
I think we all need to hit up Michelle for dunkin' donuts coffee... I'm pooped...
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:46 Pat In Michigan
8:46
Ed: 
Me, too!   ;-)
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:46 Ed
8:47
[Comment From lurkerlurker: ] 
will hillary still have a convincing argument to the superdelegates to cast their votes to her at the democratic convention after the NC wide margin?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:47 lurker
8:48
Ed: 
I don't see it ...
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:48 Ed
8:48
Ed: 
If she had made it close, then she could have had an argument ....
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:48 Ed
8:48
Ed: 
... but what I think is that NC shows the disaster looming in Demver
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:48 Ed
8:50
[Comment From malan89malan89: ] 
Have you seen what's going on with Paul? Last I saw, Huckabee hit 10% and Paul was still in single digits.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:50 malan89
8:50
Ed: 
In both states.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:50 Ed
8:51
[Comment From lurkerlurker: ] 
will hillary bow out before June or the Democratic convention?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:51 lurker
8:52
Ed: 
No way.   She sees herself as the savior of the party, and Obama as a McGovern.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:52 Ed
8:56
[Comment From SarjexSarjex: ] 
Is she far off in her perception do you think?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:56 Sarjex
8:56
Ed: 
I don't think she can do much better than Obama, really
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:56 Ed
8:58
Ed: 
South Bend just came in, Obama +6 over Hillary, not much of a boost for Obama
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:58 Ed
8:59
[Comment From Big NumbersBig Numbers: ] 
What about Gary?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:59 Big Numbers
8:59
Ed: 

Still waiting.


Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:59 Ed
8:59
[Comment From MoeHowardMoeHoward: ] 
If you had to make a snap judgment right now (based on all you are seeing and have seen): Which one is the weaker candidate to take on McCain?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 8:59 MoeHoward
9:00
Ed: 
Obama.   He wins 92% of the black vote but hasn't kept the white working class vote.   McCain will get enough of the centrists and independents.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:00 Ed
9:01
[Comment From JudyJudy: ] 
Ed - do you foresee Michele opening up Hot Air to new members to comment?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:01 Judy
9:01
Ed: 
She does that on a regular basis - keep checking with us ...
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:01 Ed
9:03
[Comment From ND Law Student in SBND Law Student in SB: ] 
If SB didn't give Obama a real boost, there's no way he wins IN. SB has the demographic he needs and the latte-sipping elites from Notre Dame. Are most networks delaying the call in order to make Hillary's win seem less significant?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:03 ND Law Student in SB
9:03
Ed: 
No, I think they're waiting for Gary and Evansville, and they're right to do so
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:03 Ed
9:03
Ed: 
Go Irish!
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:03 Ed
9:03
[Comment From Frank J.Frank J.: ] 
What do you think was more important to Obama's success in North Carolina: The Hope or the Change?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:03 Frank J.
9:04
Ed: 
Judgment You Can Trust.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:04 Ed
9:04
Ed: 
Frank J of IMAO?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:04 Ed
9:07
[Comment From Frank J.Frank J.: ] 
Are there any others?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:07 Frank J.
9:09
Ed: 
Of course not!
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:09 Ed
9:16
[Comment From Jim G. From NROJim G. From NRO: ] 
Ed... Obama just congratulated Hillary on winning Indiana. Think his fans in the media are holding out hope for Indiana more than he is?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:16 Jim G. From NRO
9:16
Ed: 
Ha!   Yeah, probably, but Gary won't win it there for him now.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:16 Ed
9:17
Ed: 
Jim's going to be my co-host for tomorrow's Ed Morrissey Show at 3 pm ET!
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:17 Ed
9:18
Ed: 
Obama on Democrats who won't support him if he beats Hillary: "I don't believe it."  
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:18 Ed
9:22
[Comment From caelestiscaelestis: ] 
Not to be a retard but if Obama won 90% of the 31% African American vote and 36% of the 67% White vote, then shouldn't he win NC 52.5%-47.5%??? I don't get statistics, but I can average numbers
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:22 caelestis
9:23
Ed: 
First, the rural votes have not come in yet, and second, the exit polls this time underestimated his performance.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:23 Ed
9:24
[Comment From PeregrinPeregrin: ] 
Ed, for the the first time since I have been voting (the Ronnie years), I have serious doubts that one of the candidates can make a credible President. I haven't always like one of the choices, but at least I thought they could do the job. What are your thoughts?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:24 Peregrin
9:25
Ed: 
I think McCain can definitely do the job.   I think Hillary could probably have done the job.   I have no clue as to whether Obama can do the job.   What has he done?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:25 Ed
9:28
[Comment From MatMat: ] 
Did Obama really just accuse us of being divisive, when he started his speech talking about rich v. poor?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:28 Mat
9:28
Ed: 
Si se puede!
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:28 Ed
9:31
Ed: 
Roosevelt talked with Hitler and Tojo?   Really?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:31 Ed
9:31
[Comment From mikeybossmikeyboss: ] 
Shep just said, "I don't think I've ever heard so much bullshit out of one mouth at one time"!
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:31 mikeyboss
9:32
[Comment From bnelson44bnelson44: ] 
That was an emailer he was quoting, not Shep. I don't think Roosevelt talked to Hitler or Tojo
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:32 bnelson44
9:32
Ed: 
Obama said it in his speech
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:32 Ed
9:34
[Comment From Big NumbersBig Numbers: ] 
Did he say Roosevelt SHOULD have talked with H&T or that he DID talk to H&T?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:34 Big Numbers
9:34
Ed: 
That he DID talk with our enemies
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:34 Ed
9:34
[Comment From KirkKirk: ] 
Ed, did you hear Obama's response to McCain's dig about not voting for constructionist judges? Didin't he quip back that McCain is out of touch because doesn't vote for judges who rule in favor of social justice?? Has anyone reported on this yet?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:34 Kirk
9:35
Ed: 
Michelle did
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:35 Ed
9:35
[Comment From bnelson44bnelson44: ] 
Looks like I'm wrong Roosevelt cabled Hitler in 1938: http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/interwar/fdr14.htm and Hitler cabled to him too: http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Holocaust/Hitlerfdr.html
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:35 bnelson44
9:37
[Comment From steveeggsteveegg: ] 
That was before the European Theater of World War II went hot.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:37 steveegg
9:37
Ed: 
and look how well it turned out
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:37 Ed
9:38
Ed: 
Had we taken Hitler on in 1936, 37, or 38, we could have saved millions of lives
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:38 Ed
9:39
[Comment From Big NumbersBig Numbers: ] 
Ed, I don't think it turned out that well, actually.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:39 Big Numbers
9:39
Ed: 

that was my point.

 


Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:39 Ed
9:40
[Comment From MibrilaneMibrilane: ] 
But Chamberlain was soooooooooooooo convincing, Ed.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:40 Mibrilane
9:40
Ed: 
It was the umbrella.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:40 Ed
9:40
[Comment From Big NumbersBig Numbers: ] 
I was being sarcastic. I recognized your sarcasm, but you didn't see mine. Pwned! I win. I can die happy.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:40 Big Numbers
9:40
Ed: 
I bow to your greater subtlety!!
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:40 Ed
9:41
[Comment From Jim G. From NROJim G. From NRO: ] 
74 percent of precincts reporting, Hillary up 4 percent, just under 40,000 votes. I don't have other results of other states at my fingertips, but this seems unusually late and cautious in calling the state...
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:41 Jim G. From NRO
9:41
Ed: 
Gary and Evansville are still out.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:41 Ed
9:42
[Comment From mycowardicemycowardice: ] 
In the title of the post it says that Hillary wins Indiana, is that your prediction or from a major news source?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:42 mycowardice
9:43
Ed: 
AP wrote that one, not sure -- I know CBS called IN for Hillary
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:43 Ed
9:44
[Comment From Jim G. From NROJim G. From NRO: ] 
The other thing is, I get nervous when every county reports except one, letting those counting the votes in that last county know exactly how many they need to swing the winner. Ask John Thune how that worked out in South Dakota in 2002.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:44 Jim G. From NRO
9:45
Ed: 
I don't think they can swing 39,000 votes, though
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:45 Ed
9:47
[Comment From AmerpunditAmerpundit: ] 
Time: "SOURCE: CLINTON WILL MAKE REMARKS SOON MAKING UNAMBIGUOUSLY CLEAR HER INTENTION TO FIGHT ON"
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:47 Amerpundit
9:47
Ed: 
shocker!
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:47 Ed
9:50
[Comment From Big NumbersBig Numbers: ] 
What do you think Obama's victory margin in Lake County will be?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:50 Big Numbers
9:50
Ed: 
55-45?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:50 Ed
9:52
Ed: 
Lake County went 2-1 for Kerry in 2004, if that helps
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:52 Ed
9:53
Ed: 
LaPorte is still out too, and Bush won that county in 2004
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:53 Ed
9:53
Ed: 
LaPorte is a lot smaller, tho.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:53 Ed
9:53
[Comment From ObamaBoyObamaBoy: ] 
I predict Obama will win In
Tuesday May 6, 2008 9:53 ObamaBoy
10:00
[Comment From SDSD: ] 
Ed, do you have any numbers on how much Obama spent in NC and IN vs Hillary?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:00 SD
10:00
Ed: 
No, but Obama had a lot more money, so I assume he spent it.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:00 Ed
10:01
[Comment From steveeggsteveegg: ] 
Estimates from my local pro handicapper had Obama outspending Clinton 4-1 in IN.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:01 steveegg
10:01
Ed: 
That seems a little high, but certainly possible.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:01 Ed
10:04
[Comment From PatrickPatrick: ] 
Cap'n, do you think the money angle will play heavily in the superdelegates minds?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:04 Patrick
10:04
Ed: 
Sure!   He's turned out to be excellent at organizing.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:04 Ed
10:06
[Comment From PatrickPatrick: ] 
Thendo you think the money angle will prove to be the big "tipping point" issue to be weighed against Hillary's big-state strength?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:06 Patrick
10:06
Ed: 
No, the tipping point issue is the black voters.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:06 Ed
10:07
[Comment From Melissa in IndianaMelissa in Indiana: ] 
Hey, how do you think the Dem leadership will look at Hillary's rural strength vs. Obama's urban strangth? Do you think they will say, "Hey we need these middle class white voters"? Or will it likely be, "Those voters are McCain's anyway"?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:07 Melissa in Indiana
10:08
Ed: 
The former -- expect a big campaign to woo those voters back.   Will it work?   We'll see .....
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:08 Ed
10:09
[Comment From CowChainCowChain: ] 
Is that kinda like cow tipping?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:09 CowChain
10:09
Ed: 
Yeah, but with fewer laughs.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:09 Ed
10:09
[Comment From KeithKeith: ] 
Can Lake County put Obama over the top in IN?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:09 Keith
10:11
Ed: 
Doubtful.   In 2004, Lake cast about 180,000 votes, about two-thirds of which went to Kerry.   If the 110,000 votes he got are the Dem base, and if they split 60-40, that puts about 22,000 votes between them.   Right now, she has a 42,000-vote lead.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:11 Ed
10:14
[Comment From steveeggsteveegg: ] 
70-30, however, would do it. That's not out of the realm of possibility.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:14 steveegg
10:14
Ed: 
There are other counties out that Hillary is expected to win, still
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:14 Ed
10:14
[Comment From mycowardicemycowardice: ] 
So you think it will finish 51/49?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:14 mycowardice
10:15
Ed: 
It might, and that will not help Hillary at all
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:15 Ed
10:15
Ed: 
She needed a Pennsylvania-size win
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:15 Ed
10:16
[Comment From steveeggsteveegg: ] 
CNN's showing only Lake and Union with no results, and a tight race in Laporte (52-48 Clinton with 52% in). Let me see what else isn't fully-reported.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:16 steveegg
10:16
Ed: 

I see that -- 39,000 gap now


Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:16 Ed
10:17
Ed: 
A 70-30 split could create a big problem
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:17 Ed
10:17
[Comment From Big NumbersBig Numbers: ] 
What about a big story? What about the proof Obama lied about whether he used to be a Muslim? Do you think that could make a difference?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:17 Big Numbers
10:18
Ed: 
I don't think anyone's buying it
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:18 Ed
10:18
Ed: 
Besides, his current church gives him enough headaches
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:18 Ed
10:19
Ed: 
"word on the street" isn't exactly a convincing level of proof
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:19 Ed
10:20
Ed: 
I'm not going to debate the Obama-Muslim issue, guys.   He was eight years old.  
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:20 Ed
10:20
[Comment From VizziniVizzini: ] 
Beckel is suggesting there may be shenanigans in Gary.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:20 Vizzini
10:21
Ed: 

Beckel's speculating ... wait for a while, it will come in.


Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:21 Ed
10:22
Ed: 

He lied about Wright, he lied about Ayers, he lied about Rezko, and all of those issues happened when he was an adult.   Why not just focus on those?


Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:22 Ed
10:24
Ed: 
Hillary's up 43,000 now.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:24 Ed
10:25
[Comment From CJCJ: ] 
Our local paper's Lake County primary blog reported at 9:04 that Rudy Clay (mayor of Gary and Lake County Democratic Chairman) was saying that 11,000 absentee ballots still needed to be counted in Lake before releasing the results
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:25 CJ
10:27
[Comment From Peg KPeg K: ] 
Ed - do you think that Obama will ultimately be somewhat harmed by people like his wife and others who assert that those who don't vote for him have to be racist? Another Mary Mitchell column to that effect today....
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:27 Peg K
10:27
Ed: 
Yes.   That stuff sells in the Democratic primaries but not in the general election.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:27 Ed
10:36
[Comment From CHAOSCHAOS: ] 
Ed, do you have any numbers on how much Cliton spent in NC ?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:36 CHAOS
10:36
Ed: 
No, sorry, I don't/
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:36 Ed
10:43
[Comment From JudyJudy: ] 
per Drudge...........Hillary plans to huddle with undecided super delegates tomorrow; gauging if she can go on... Developing...
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:43 Judy
10:43
Ed: 
She won't like the answer.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:43 Ed
10:44
[Comment From heddly_lamarheddly_lamar: ] 
Bill's the color of a beet. Is he having a stroke?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:44 heddly_lamar
10:44
Ed: 
The other camera angle doesn't look as bad, though.
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:44 Ed
10:45
[Comment From sammy316sammy316: ] 
do you think HRC blew her chance on '04?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:45 sammy316
10:45
Ed: 
No, she had only been in the Senate three years ...... oh, wait ....
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:45 Ed
10:47
[Comment From JudyJudy: ] 
....sounds like a consession speech...........
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:47 Judy
10:47
Ed: 

Both of them are talking unity now.


Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:47 Ed
10:51
Ed: 
Burma?
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:51 Ed
10:51
Ed: 
okay ....
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:51 Ed
10:52
Ed: 
OK, folks, it looks like it's going to be several hours for Lake County, so I'm going to wrap this up
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:52 Ed
10:52
Ed: 
Thanks for being with us tonight
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:52 Ed
10:53
Ed: 
Be sure to join me tomorrow on the show, when I talk about this election result with Jim Geraghty of National Review, at 3 pm ET
Tuesday May 6, 2008 10:53 Ed
10:54
Thank you for reading today.              

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