Pennsylvania Primary Results: Live Thread One
5:57
TalkLeft: 
TL: We're live. One minute to show time.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 5:57 TalkLeft
5:59
BTD: 
I am assuming the exit polls show a 5-6 point clinton lead based on the talking heads. The question is will the exits understate Clinton support aas they have before. Will it go to 10?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 5:59 BTD
6:00
TalkLeft: 
Race competitive. no winner.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:00 TalkLeft
6:00
BTD: 
BTD - Very competitive says Blitzer. 5- 10 imo.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:00 BTD
6:00
BTD: 
NBC of course calls it "too close to call."
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:00 BTD
6:03
BTD: 
BTD - NBC forgets that it was "too close to call" in Rhode Island and Ohio on March 4. Clinton won RI by 17 and Ohio by 10. Obama may keep it close or even win, but I hope they realize that their "too close to calls" are not indicative of the result.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:03 BTD
6:03
[Image]map420.jpg  View
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:03 
6:04
TalkLeft: 
here's a map of the states so far.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:04 TalkLeft
6:05
TalkLeft: 
Here's the PA county map.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:05 TalkLeft
6:05
[Image]pacountymap.jpg  View
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:05 
6:05
BTD: 
The CNN exit poll is exactly what Drudge reported. so the exit polls say Clinton 52- 48. the same exit polls had a tie in RI and Obanma winning Ohio by 2.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:05 BTD
6:05
BTD: 
Clinton wins women 55-44 according to the exit polls and loses men 53-47.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:05 BTD
6:06
TalkLeft: 
larger version is here.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:06 TalkLeft
6:07
BTD: 
Clinton wins white men 55-45 and white women 63-36.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:07 BTD
6:08
TalkLeft: 
So which is it, she wins white men or loses them?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:08 TalkLeft
6:09
BTD: 
Wins white men 55-45, wins white women 63-36. Wins whites overall about 60-40.

Loses A-A 92-8.

This is subject to adjustment still. I expect the white vote to adjust upwards for Clinton.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:09 BTD
6:11
TalkLeft: 
CNN live election results online here.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:11 TalkLeft
6:12
BTD: 
A lot of sitting around and waiting now.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:12 BTD
6:18
BTD: 
The exit polls are still in flux imo. In Ohio the numbers changed significantly.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:18 BTD
6:19
TalkLeft: 
No kidding. I'm watching CNN. Racial and gender voting: white men voted for Hillary, 53% to 46%.   White women were less conflicted, 64% to 36% for Hillary, nearly 2 to 1.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:19 TalkLeft
6:21
TalkLeft: 
Remember, only comments left in the thread as usual can be seen by everyone. Comments left inside the live blog are only seen by BTD and me.  
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:21 TalkLeft
6:22
BTD: 
The numbers continue to chasnge. Black %age of the vote down to 13%.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:22 BTD
6:23
TalkLeft: 
Time note: The live blog is in Mountain Time (Colorado.) Add 2 hours for ET.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:23 TalkLeft
6:24
BTD: 
24 minutes in and not a single vote counted. Hard to believe.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:24 BTD
6:25
TalkLeft: 
The TL kid just arrived to grill   steaks for dinner and watch the results. He's for Hillary -- would be a difficult evening otherwise.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:25 TalkLeft
6:26
BTD: 
Fox says that they have evidence that the exit poll number is overstating Obama's result.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:26 BTD
6:27
TalkLeft: 
 A reader writes in   about what's on pollster.com.

"The 52% Clinton, 48% Obama breakdown simply is based on interviews received just before the polls closed -- who they asked, not how many of each turned out. And "It's worth remembering that this initial update is almost always based on what exit pollsters call the "composite" estimate (an average of the exit poll tallies and pre-election polls. Subsequent updates will add in more exit poll interviews being phoned in now, constantly improving estimates of the turnout by the exit poll "geostrata" and, gradually actual vote for the sampled precincts. Also very important to keep in mind: The as-the-polls-close estimate for Ohio also had Clinton leading by four points."
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:27 TalkLeft
6:28
What will the margin be
Hilllary by 10 or more
 ( 66% )
Hillary by 5 to 10
 ( 27% )
Hillary by 1 to 5
 ( 4% )
Tie
 ( 0% )
Obama Wins
 ( 2% )

Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:28 
6:28
BTD: 
Pollster's memory is faulty. The first exit polls coming out of Ohio had Obama winning by 2 points.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:28 BTD
6:28
TalkLeft: 
Just posted the first poll on margin of error.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:28 TalkLeft
6:31
TalkLeft: 
Anyone see a number on late deciders? How many? I assume Hillary will get most of those.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:31 TalkLeft
6:36
BTD: 
Fox says their exit polls have clinton up 6 but they expect it to be bigger.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:36 BTD
6:36
BTD: 
First number finally. clinton winning 2 out of 3 but it is early.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:36 BTD
6:37
TalkLeft: 
First results on CNN: Hillary has 67% to Obama's 33%. What county?
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:37 TalkLeft
6:37
BTD: 
1629 - 819 Clinton.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:37 BTD
6:37
BTD: 
Luzerrine and Philly.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:37 BTD
6:38
TalkLeft: 
Philly? That's Obama country.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:38 TalkLeft
6:38
BTD: 
The expectation on Fox is that Clinton will win by more than 6.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:38 BTD
6:38
TalkLeft: 
She got 75% in Luzerne. I think she'll win by more than that.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:38 TalkLeft
6:39
BTD: 
If it is 6, SUSA proves again they are the polling Gods.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:39 BTD
6:40
TalkLeft: 
Age of voters: Hillary's getting 39% of youth vote and 60% of older vote.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:40 TalkLeft
6:41
TalkLeft: 
These first results are not full county results. They are like 1% of the county. Meaningless.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:41 TalkLeft
6:42
BTD: 
Sure, it is way too early to know anything.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:42 BTD
6:42
TalkLeft: 
2,700 votes in total....out of millions. She's got four counties to his one though.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:42 TalkLeft
6:43
TalkLeft: 
Time to light the grill and get the corn on the cob ready.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:43 TalkLeft
6:47
BTD: 
20,000 - 13,000 Clinton. 60-40.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:47 BTD
6:47
TalkLeft: 
Big jump in numbers.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:47 TalkLeft
6:48
TalkLeft: 
CNn says 11% decided today and Hillary got 59%
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:48 TalkLeft
6:48
TalkLeft: 
Fox calls it for Hillary according to a reader.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:48 TalkLeft
6:48
BTD: 
Clinton still winning 12-10k in Philly.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:48 BTD
6:49
TalkLeft: 
Fox says Hillary won every one of her groups and held on to her core voters.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:49 TalkLeft
6:49
BTD: 
fox calls PA for Hillary.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:49 BTD
6:49
TalkLeft: 
Fox says it's 53 to 46.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:49 TalkLeft
6:50
BTD: 
NBC calls it for Hillary.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:50 BTD
6:50
TalkLeft: 
She got 60% of seniors. Time for a new thread.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:50 TalkLeft
6:50
BTD: 
Hillary leads 32 - 26K 55-45.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:50 BTD
6:52
TalkLeft: 
New live blog here.
Tuesday April 22, 2008 6:52 TalkLeft
6:53
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