COVERITLIVE.COM

5:58	William Bowe - Test

6:03	William Bowe - Auspoll exit poll across 22 marginal seats: Labor 45 per cent, LNP 47 per cent, Greens 5 per cent. Two-party preferred: 50-50.

6:05	William Bowe - A reminder: this facility is not open for general discussion, it's just the platform the PPT crew are using for our live blogging. If you wish to discuss the election, please do so in the blog comments thread.

6:20	Possum - The Daylight Saving Party didnt seem to do much in the exit polls.

7:01	markbahnisch - I think the DS4EQ mob vastly overrated the geekiness of voters, Poss!

7:02	markbahnisch - Poss, do we know whether it's the 22 most marginal seats or the 22 most marginal Labor seats in the Auspoll exit polls? I was interested in your comments at PPT on the figures from last time. That doesn't suggest a huge swing - at least in the marginals.

7:03	William Bowe - Another reminder that the CoveritLive feature is for the coverage from your friendly hosts. Readers are invited to discuss the count in blog comments.

7:04

Possum - If it's the 22 *most* marginal then the swing is effectively zero. If it was the 22 most marginal Labor held seats, then the swing is effectively 2%. Accounting for a slight proportional application of swing (where larger margins swing larger against etc) and blow it up to a 3% swing, that would make the most probabilistic outcome to be Labour winning 53 seats if the polling is true.

7:06	markbahnisch - While that would blow my 45 seats to Labor prediction out of the water, I wouldn't be unhappy! It's interesting to note that on my rather quick scan of the tipping contest thread, very few people had Labor in the 50s...

7:14	Ben Raue - Hello all! Sorry about the delay, I'll be moving around between my base in the Brisbane CBD and possibly the ECQ Tally Room and the Queensland Greens election party in Brisbane Central.

Page 1 Next >