COVERITLIVE.COM

5:58	William Bowe - Test

6:03	William Bowe - Auspoll exit poll across 22 marginal seats: Labor 45 per cent, LNP 47 per cent, Greens 5 per cent. Two-party preferred: 50-50.

6:05	William Bowe - A reminder: this facility is not open for general discussion, it's just the platform the PPT crew are using for our live blogging. If you wish to discuss the election, please do so in the blog comments thread.

6:20	Possum - The Daylight Saving Party didnt seem to do much in the exit polls.

7:01	markbahnisch - I think the DS4EQ mob vastly overrated the geekiness of voters, Poss!

7:02	markbahnisch - Poss, do we know whether it's the 22 most marginal seats or the 22 most marginal Labor seats in the Auspoll exit polls? I was interested in your comments at PPT on the figures from last time. That doesn't suggest a huge swing - at least in the marginals.

7:03	William Bowe - Another reminder that the CoveritLive feature is for the coverage from your friendly hosts. Readers are invited to discuss the count in blog comments.

7:04

Possum - If it's the 22 *most* marginal then the swing is effectively zero. If it was the 22 most marginal Labor held seats, then the swing is effectively 2%. Accounting for a slight proportional application of swing (where larger margins swing larger against etc) and blow it up to a 3% swing, that would make the most probabilistic outcome to be Labour winning 53 seats if the polling is true.

7:06	markbahnisch - While that would blow my 45 seats to Labor prediction out of the water, I wouldn't be unhappy! It's interesting to note that on my rather quick scan of the tipping contest thread, very few people had Labor in the 50s...

7:14	Ben Raue - Hello all! Sorry about the delay, I'll be moving around between my base in the Brisbane CBD and possibly the ECQ Tally Room and the Queensland Greens election party in Brisbane Central.

7:15	Possum - Might be a gloomy Greens party of their result is only 5% like the exit polls suggested Ben!

7:15	markbahnisch - Ben - my impression was that The Greens' campaign in Brisbane Central was much more low key than I expected - do you have any info on that? Has there been a bit of a drain of scarce resources towards Indooro?

7:16	Ben Raue - Yes, I have heard stories of resources being pulled from Brisbane Central and sent to Indooroopilly, that's partly why I decided to go help out in Bris Central. You're right Possum, I think the tally room might be more fun.

7:20	Ben Raue - For those of you not in Queensland, ABC1 does not seem to have started their coverage, they are just showing the 6pm news.

7:22	William Bowe - ABC getting very early results in, but nothing over 1% counted.

7:23	markbahnisch - Ben - the tally room can be interesting to get a sense of the vibe, but it's actually a difficult place to get a sense of the tally!

7:24	markbahnisch - Just an update for those interested in tuning into the coverage on The Sunday Talk, Matthew tells me there are some technical problems - will advise when they're rectified.

7:27	Ben Raue - Small sample from Indooroopilly: LNP 80 votes, ALP 50 votes, Ronan Lee 50 votes, with little preference flows between Lee and Warner.

7:27	markbahnisch - Do you know which booth, Ben?

7:28	Ben Raue - It could be Ironside, but I'm not sure.

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