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12:11

Fred Barbash - We are getting read to start the chat...please stay tuned.

12:29

Fred Barbash-Moderator - Good afternoon or morning, or, I suppose evening for some. Welcome to the weekly POLITICO-Brookings chat. Our guest today is Ross Hammond, a Brookings fellow and co-author of the report, "Economic Cost and Health Care Workforce Effects of School Closures in the U.S.

As the nation and the world continue to grapple with H1N1, school closures are one policy tool under consideration to slow spread of the pandemic. In the first comprehensive U.S. study of the economic cost of school and daycare center closures, Brookings’ Center on Social and Economic Dynamics (CSED) found that closing all schools in the U.S. for four weeks could cost between $10 to $47 billion dollars--a conservative estimate because only earnings rather than total compensation were used to calculate costs--and could lead to a reduction of up to 19% in key health care personnel.

Thanks for being here Ross and thanks to all our readers. Let me begin Ross by asking you for a really brief summary of your study and a little bit about how you arrived at these figures.

12:30

Ross Hammond -

Thanks, Fred. The purpose of our study is to give an estimate of the potential economic costs associated with widespread school closures. When schools close, parents must find a way to care for children who are at home. In some cases, this will mean adults missing work to take care of children. Those missed work hours add up to real costs to the economy (and to households).

12:31

Ross Hammond - In our study, we try to identify which households will have workers who will need to be absent to care for children, and add up the costs of those missed work hours in terms of goods and services in the economy.

12:32

Ross Hammond -

We also try to estimate how many of the absentees will come from the health care sector, which could affect the delivery of health services.

12:32

[Comment From Jason]
Why are school closures being discussed as a response to the flu pandemic?

12:33

Ross Hammond - Closing schools can reduce social contact among children and thus slow the spread of the virus (assuming they don’t mix elsewhere, like malls or playgrounds). Some recent studies in epidemiology have suggested that school closures could modestly reduce the total number of cases and might delay the “peak” of the epidemic, buying more time for vaccine to become available. Individual schools may also decide to close if so many of their students or staff are out ill that it is difficult to carry on their educational mission.

12:33

[Comment From Fred in VA]
With H1N1 vaccine delays occurring across the country, do you think it will be more likely that we'll see a scenario like what you describe in your study?

12:34

Ross Hammond - Yes, that is certainly a possibility. The current CDC recommendation is that schools close only as a last resort, in cases of widespread illness. But if the vaccine is substantially delayed, school closure might become an important option.

12:35

[Comment From Kenneth]
Where do you think swine flu will rank on the scale of pandemics?

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