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Robin Wright on Iran
 
2:31
Fred Barbash-Moderator -  Robin Wright will be with us at 3 pm to take questions about Iran. You are welcome to submit questions in advance. Robin, a former colleague of mine at the Washington Post, is the most experienced and knowledgeable American journalist on the subject of Iran, Iraq and the Middle East generally. Her most recent book is "Dreams and Shadows: The Future of the Middle East."

Robin's complete bio is below:


Robin Wright has reported from more than a 140 countries on six continents for The Washington Post, The Los Angeles Times, The Sunday Times of London, CBS News and The Christian Science Monitor. She has also written for The New Yorker, The Atlantic Monthly, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The New York Times, The International Herald Tribune and others.

Her foreign tours include the Middle East, Europe, Africa, and several years as a roving foreign correspondent. She has covered a dozen wars and several revolutions. She most recently covered U.S. foreign policy for The Washington Post.

Among several awards, Wright received the U.N. Correspondents Gold Medal, the National Magazine Award for reportage from Iran in The New Yorker, and the Overseas Press Club Award for "best reporting in any medium requiring exceptional courage and initia­tive" for coverage of African wars. She was named journalist of the year by the American Academy of Diplomacy, and won the National Press Club Award and the Weintal Prize for diplomatic reporting. Wright has also been the recipient of a John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation grant.

As an author, Ms. Wright has been a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Brookings Institution, Yale University, Duke University, Stanford University, and the University of California at Santa Barbara. She lectures extensively around the United States and has appeared on ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN and PBS programs, including “Meet the Press,” “Face the Nation,” “This Week,” “Nightline,” the “Newshour,” “Frontline,” and "Larry King Live.’

Among her books, The Last Great Revolution: Turmoil and Transformation in Iran was selected as one of the 25 most memorable books of the year 2000. She is also the author of Sacred Rage: The Wrath of Militant Islam, Flashpoints: Promise and Peril in a New World, and In the Name of God: The Khomeini Decade.

2:34
Fred Barbash-Moderator -  Robin will be with us at 3 pm. You may submit questions now. Please give a name, rather than a handle or "guest." And thanks for participating.
3:01
Fred Barbash-Moderator -  Welcome Robin. Thanks for taking the time to do this. I know it's been a busy week for you. Welcome readers and thanks for participating. We'll take the first question now.
3:01
[Comment From Jen]
Ms. Wright. There's much back and forth about what Obama should or should not say. Will anything he says make any significant difference in your opinion?
3:05
Robin Wright -  Hi Jen - That's a good question. President Obama has taken a wise course so far because of the controversial US role in Iran over the past 60 years. In 1953, the US and British intelligence orchestrated a coup against a democratically elected government and put the shah back on the throne. Many Iranians believe that because evolutionary political change was blocked that Iran then went through a revolution to end the monarchy. Many Iranians are still suspect about US intentions. If Obama took sides in what is a domestic dispute, the Iranian crisis would almost certainly be redefined by the regime as being orchestrated again by Washington. But if the violence escalates, the president may also find himself under growing pressure to say more.
3:05
[Comment From Tim Dodt]
Robin the stunning uprising in Iran is incredible as it was in 1979, which I also wittnessed. My question is do you think the protests can bring about real and sustainable change to improve Iran's relations with the west and be capable of beginning to show a more progressive and solution based stance towards Isreal and it's place in the Middle East?
3:09
Robin Wright -  Hi Tim - Another excellent question. We have to keep reminding ourselves that this is not - yet - a counterrevolution. The flashpoints have grown in the past few days, so that the uprising is no longer just about who won the disputed presidential election. It is now also about the powers of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is a kind of infallible political pope. But the protesters are not talking about ending the regime. And for the US, whoever ends up as president will probably take a fairly similar position on many of the issues that most concern the outside world. But it's also clear - based on positions during the election - that Mousavi is more interested in bettering relations with the outside world than Ahmadinejad is. But no one will know the full answer to your question until we get to a denouement in this crisis, which may still be a long way off.
3:09
[Comment From Gabriel]
Geoffrey Kemp has suggested that a Mousavi victory could actually weaken international pressure on Iran to cease their nuclear program. Do you think there is truth to that, and how do you think the US should act towards Iran in the event that Mousavi is able to emerge with a leadership role?
3:13
Robin Wright -  The Obama administration has - so far - signaled that it still intends to try to engage Iran whoever wins. But there is little either side can do until this crisis either dies down or is resolved. If Mousavi assumes the presidency, I suspect it would buy more time for diplomacy because he would be bringing in a whole new team starting from scratch with the international community.
3:13
[Comment From Jay]
Hi, what's the next move for the protesters -- are they going to try to sue for a compromise or press to bring down the government?
3:18
Robin Wright -  Hi Jay - The protesters are clearly trying to regroup right now and address that very point: what's next. The numbers out today were largely in the hundreds. Government forces have been increasingly effective in both scaring people back into their homes or, when crowds do gather, breaking them up into smaller groups to pursue - in part so there are no more of the cell phone videos of mass protests sent to the outside world. The options for the protesters include a nationwide boycott that could see businesses close -- and signal that the business community and labors also support the opposition. That was a very effective part of the revolution in 1978and 1979. What's quite interesting about the uprising is that many of its tactics and factors resemble what first launched the revolution.
3:18
[Comment From Janeth]
Is the Council of Experts really and truly spit and will that split manifest any real democratic change as you see it. There have been some reports that the ayatollah could be ousted if the experts have a vote of some kind does that strike you as credible?
3:20
Robin Wright -  Hi Janeth - There are 2 bodies -- both of clerics -- that are central to Iran's power structure. The Council of Guardians has 12 members, half appointed by the supreme leader and half by the head of the judiciary (who is appointed by the supreme leader). It is in charge of the investigation - which announced today that there had indeed been voting irregularities in 50 districts involving some 3 million votes. (There are 46 million voters in iran). MORE
3:24
Robin Wright -  Sorry - I wasn't finished with the previous question. The Assembly of Experts has 86 members who are popularly elected. They oversee the supreme leader, although they've never done anything but endorse him. The big question now is where they stand. Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani is head of this body and he and his family have backed Mousavi. Indeed his daughter was arrested over the weekend for her activities, including speaking in public in support of Mousavi. Rafsanjani clearly does not want Ahmadinejad to win a second term. In one of the many stories within stories in this crisis, Ahmadinejad first came to power in a stunning upset in 2005 when he was the little known mayor of Tehran, in power only 2 years, and he whomped Rafsanjani - arguably the most legendary politician in Iran. There are lots of rumors - nothing confirmed - about what he's doing in the background to rally a new coalition against Khamenei. The intrigue is fascinating.
3:24
[Comment From Pat Durall]
It seems that the parallels to other situations where the US had a positive hand in supporting an uprising against a repressive regime break down in comparison (ie we had direct involvement in the phillipines and we were seldom if ever provide real aid). But Bush 41 created havoc in Iraq by implying support when none was there. Are there examples which justify calls for greater involvement in supporting the Iranian people?
3:28
Robin Wright -  Hi Pat - That's a tough question that the White House would also have a hard time answering: At what juncture is violence too much? And then what are US options? Frankly, we don't have many. The US is clearly not going to get militarily. And there is little we can do economically either. And everything we do diplomatically is conducted through the Swiss government. Many Iranian non-government organizations have publicly said they do not want US funds or assistance because that would taint them at home. It's quite frustrating to see such brutality play out now throughout Iran. But the Iran situation presents a quite unique conundrum for Washington.
3:29
[Comment From Reza]
We may soon see the images of Obama popping up in demonstrations and his name in[...]voked in support of their democratic cause if the President continues his measured stance of non-interference and respect for universal rights of assembly and free speech. As an Iranian-American academic I believe there indeed is a stealth Obama effect at play. I see signs of it emerging, including what was posted this morning on the Facebook memorioal page for Neda, juxtaposing the iconic image of Obama (with Progress caption) with a similar picture of Mousavi with "Victory" caption. Incredibly for a US president, Obama is emerging as a friend of the protesters. It also helps greatly that Hussain, a beloved Shia name, is his middle name! What do you think?
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