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The Scouting Report: Afghanistan and Pakistan
 
12:30
John Ward Anderson -  Greetings everybody. I’m John Anderson, a senior editor at POLITICO, and I’ll be moderating today’s chat with Brookings foreign policy fellow Vanda Felbab-Brown. She’s an expert on illicit economies, counter-narcotics strategies, US foreign policy, Afghanistan and a range of other issues, and she also teaches at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.

By way of background, I first travelled to Pakistan and Afghanistan about 17 years ago and made dozens of return trips over the years – the most recent to Afghanistan in the fall of 2007 and to Pakistan in early 2008 following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. So I have more than a passing interest, and I’m looking forward to what Vanda has to say.

As usual, I’m grabbing the right to ask the first question. Vanda, there’s a meeting scheduled this afternoon between Obama, Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari. There is so much distrust and resentment between Afghanistan and Pakistan -- is there really any chance they can set aside their difference and distrust to jointly tackle the shared threats they both face from Islamic radicals – both Taliban and al-Qaeda -- in their border region? Color me skeptical.

12:30
Vanda Felbab-Brown -  Hi John and everyone!
12:31
Vanda Felbab-Brown -  Changing the dynamics between the two countries and its leaders will not be easy. Moreover, the level of distrust has expanded to the trilateral relationship -- there is a major trust deficit between Pakistan and the US and also the relationship between the new US administration and Kabul has not been easy.
12:33
Vanda Felbab-Brown -  President Obama will have only 30 minutes w/ Zardari and Karzai to engage them. Nonetheless, he will be driving home how mutually interdependent the fates of the countries are and that Islamist terrorism and insurgency now poses deep problems and challenges to both countries.
12:34
Vanda Felbab-Brown -  There have been some improvements in intelligence sharing and border cooperation between the two countries - not sufficient, but a positive development nonetheless. Unfortunately, Pakistan's attention is once again being drawn away toward the east & toward its own jihadist problem now.
12:34
[Comment From Adrianna (DC)]
Can the international community negotiate with a moderate Taliban?
12:34
Vanda Felbab-Brown -  The answer depends on the terms of negotiations and on a proper understanding of what the Taliban is and what can or cannot be understood as moderate Taliban.
12:36
Vanda Felbab-Brown -  Both on the Pakistan and Afghan sides, the Taliban(s) are  a conglomerate of various actors, including local antagonized  and disfranchised tribes.  Some of the inviduals as well as groupings also side with the Taliban because they believe that security wise this is less risky and than siding w/ the Afghan govenrment or NATO.  
12:37
Vanda Felbab-Brown -  We can and should engage such actors -- explore ways that we could reassure them and help address some of their local grievances. However, the purpose should not be used to turn them into Anbar-like militias, so -called lashkars.
12:37
Vanda Felbab-Brown -  The lashkar strategy has not worked well in Pakistan, and will be counterproductive in Afghanistan.
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