COVERITLIVE.COM

10:05

John Marelius - Good morning all. A rather uneventful day so far. But President Obama admits he's not satisfied with the progress of his stimulus package. Confirmation hearings for Sonia Sotomayor are scheduled to begin July 13. And if same-sex marriage makes a return appearance to the California ballot in November 2010, it figures to complicate life for the candidates for governor on the same ballot. So let's get to your questions and comments.

10:09

SignOnLiveChatModerator -

Yesterday, John Marelius wrote a story looking at how the issue of same-sex marriage could affect the upcoming governor's race. This is the story

10:09

SignOnLiveChatModerator - Marriage issue could affect race for governor

10:10

SignOnLiveChatModerator -

John, if same-sex marriage lands on the 2010 ballot, which party would that impact the most?

10:14

John Marelius - It's hard to say. Being in favor of same-sex marriage helps Democratic candidates in the Democratic primary. Being against same-sex marriage helps Republican candidates in the Republican primary. Last November, Republicans voted 82% for Proposition 8; Democrats voted 64% against it. But in the general election, when candidates need to appeal to the broader electorate, it's not clear that the issue helps anybody. The Republican candidates in particular are all social moderates. Tom Campbell favors same-sex marriage. Steve Poizner opposes it, but seldom brings the subject up. Same with Meg Whitman. When Whitman was in San Diego last week, she made it clear she does not intend to campaign on social issues. If Son of Prop 8 is on the ballot, that may be hard to avoid.

10:17

SignOnLiveChatModerator -

Opposition to same-sex marriage is stronger among Republicans, as the exit polls showed in November. If Son of Prop. 8 does qualify for the ballot, would this lead to a stronger turnout among conservatives and help the GOP candidate?

10:19

John Marelius - I think it cuts both ways. Polls show that opponents of same-sex marriage have more intense feelings on the subject that supporters. So it's quite conceivable that conservatives who are uninspired by the governor's race and might not otherwise vote will turn out. On the other hand, candidates in the general election can't spend the entire campaign playing to their parties' base. They need to be reaching out to independents, who are pretty evenly split on same-sex marriage, and moderate members of the other party who can be persuaded to cross over.

10:21

SignOnLiveChatModerator - Folks, right now we are discussing same-sex marriage and how it will impact the California governor's race. However, this is a politics chat. Feel free to ask John Marelius any questions you may have about state and national politics. Or, just make a comment.

10:24

[Comment From Alsn]
In your article Jeff flint stated that a voter's position on Proposition 8 did not affect the voter's support for a candidate. That to me sounds like a person is really not paying attention to or care how the potential governors are voting so it might not even have an impact at all... But with all of the craziness surrounding prop 8 it might be a complete flip and everyone will be paying attention to get what they feel is right...

10:26

John Marelius - I wouldn't say it's a matter of not paying attention. Flint was talking about minority voters who voted for Proposition 8 and then voted for Barack Obama and every other Democrat on the ticket. What that tells me is that people base their votes on president and other offices on a lot of issues other than same-sex marriage.

10:31

SignOnLiveChatModerator -

John, you've already told us where the prospective GOP gubernatorial candidates stand on the issue of same-sex marriage. What about the prospective Democratic candidates?

10:33

John Marelius - All of them are in favor of it and quite outspokenly so. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom allowed same-sex marriages shortly after taking office in 2004, although the courts promptly shot him down. Attorney General Jerry Brown refused to defend Proposition 8 in court, which is the attorney general's job. Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa campaigned against Prop.8. U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein ( who I still don't believe will run for governor) filmed television commercials against it.

10:41

SignOnLiveChatModerator - John, in your professional opinion, if Son of Prop. 8 makes it on the 2010 ballot, will it pass?

10:44

John Marelius - The short answer is who knows? That's why they have campaigns. The No on 8 folks realize they ran a very bad campaign last year and say they are taking steps to correct that. So even if they run a better campaign, the biggest problem they will have is turnout. Every poll shows a huge generational dynamic to this issue. Younger voters strongly favor same-sex marriage; older ones strongly oppose it. There was a huge turnout in 2008 of younger voters turnout out to vote for Barack Obama. Will they show up for a gubernatorial election in anywhere close to those numbers? They never have.

10:55

John Marelius - Looks like we're out of time for this week. But come back next Tuesday at 10:00.

10:55

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