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The Scouting Report: Iran's Presidential Election
 
12:25
Fred Barbash - Moderator -  We are getting ready to start the chat - stay tuned.
12:29
Fred Barbash-Moderator -  

Welcome all. Our guest today is Suzanne Maloney, who will take questions about the upcoming Iranian election.


Suzanne is a Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, where her research focuses on energy, economic reform and U.S. policy toward the Middle East. Most recently, she was a member of the State Department's Policy Planning Staff, covering Iran, Iraq, the Gulf States and broader Middle East issues. Prior to joining the government, she was the Middle East Advisor at ExxonMobil Corporation, where she worked on regional business development, political risk analysis, and corporate outreach and communications. Dr. Maloney directed the 2004 Council on Foreign Relations Task Force on US Policy toward Iran, chaired by Zbigniew Brzezinski and Robert Gates, and is the author of a forthcoming book on Iran for the U.S. Institute of Peace. She was the recipient of an International Affairs Fellowship at the Council on Foreign Relations and has previously served at Brookings as an Olin Fellow and a Brookings Research Fellow. She holds a Ph.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

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Welcome Suzanne. Let me start off by asking you just to bring us up to date on developments in the election campaign. The status of the "horse race," if you will.

12:31
Suzanne Maloney -  The candidates are the current president, the notorious Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; a former prime minister of Iran, Mir Husayn Musavi who is one of the leading reformists; a former parliamentary speaker Mehdi Karrubi, who believes the 2005 election was stolen from him; and the former head of the revolutionary guards and only other conservative in the race, Mohsen Rezai.

Over the past few days, election fever has hit Iran, thanks in part to a series of unprecedented and contentious televised debates between the candidates and an escalating series of public demonstrations.
12:32
Suzanne Maloney -  

One more point to start - anyone who tries to predict the outcome of an Iranian election in advance almost invariably finds him or herself on the wrong side of history - this is a very unpredictable country.

12:32
[Comment From Travis Rumans]
How much do the election results actually matter? With Khameini and the Council of Guardians still retaining power no matter who wins or loses, is this just political theater?
12:33
Suzanne Maloney -  

The best answer to this question is simply to compare the environment inside Iran and its relationship with the world under President Khatami (97-2005) and the shift that occured after Ahmadinejad was elected in 2005.

The presidency has limited powers but can shape the context for all of Iran's policies to an inordiante degree.

12:33
[Comment From shawn]
What kind of voter turnout can we expect?
12:34
Suzanne Maloney -  Voter turnout generally hovers around 2/3 of the electorate - but has gone as high as 80 percent in the 1997 surprise upset by Khatami. The key factor will be urban turnout, as Ahmadinejad's opponents probably have a greater base there - historically the cities have had lower turnout particularly after the demise of the reform movement. If that trend changes, it won't favor the incumbent.
12:35
[Comment From Peter Wütherich]
In what way will the outcome of the Iranian election influence the confrontation about Iran's nuclear ambitions? Which candidate would be best suited to find a peaceful solution for this contentious issue?
12:36
Suzanne Maloney -  All of Ahmadinejad's opponents have indicated greater openness toward negotiations on the nuclear issue - although none have suggested that they would be willing to accept the UN's demand that Iran suspend uranium enrichment. And any of the rivals would certainly build momentum in the US for President Obama's announced strategy of engagement.
12:36
[Comment From Cory]
Why is Mohsen Rezai in this race? Isn't it very conceivable that he could split the conservative vote?
12:37
Suzanne Maloney -  I suspect Rezai entered the race to lay down a marker for his own political future. He is very ambitious and knows he has no chance of winning - but a decent showing could help him take a larger role among the conservatives for the future.
12:37
[Comment From Travis Rumans]
What motivated Mousavi to jump into the election, after initially staying out?
12:39
Suzanne Maloney -  

Moussavi retired from politics 20 years ago and repeatedly resisted efforts by the then-fledgling reform movement to become its standard bearer in 1997 and onward. His reemergence is fascinating and not fully understood. He has a long history of friction with Khamenei, the supreme leader, and some suggest that he was actively discouraged from resuming a political role in the past. But his performance this time around suggests that he's in it to win it.

12:39
[Comment From Adrianna]
Are Iran’s elections truly democratic and legitimate?
12:40
Suzanne Maloney -  Not at all. An unelected council of clerics and lay jurists must approve all candidates, who have to swear fidelity to Iran's Islamic system. So it's not a fair fight by any standard. Still, they are intensely competitive and draw genuine, substantial participation by the Iranian population, so no one should write off the elections or their outcome because of the flaws in the process.
12:40
[Comment From Cory]
Do you believe there is a high likelihood of tampering with the election results? As reported by the New York Times yesterday, there are rumblings in the Musavi campaign, and I quote, that a "senior cleric" has already authorized fixing the election outright for Ahmadinejad. Is this just an attempt on the part of that campaign to play the victim or do you see this as a real threat?
12:42
Suzanne Maloney -  Rigging is not only possible, it is inevitable -- but within limits. There are varying estimates on what proportion of the vote can be manipulated. But Iranians do take part in these events in very considerable numbers, and an outcome that is totally at odds with their experience on the ground would be rejected by the public - a reality which the regime understands all too well.
12:42
[Comment From Jenna]
Who does Khameini support in these elections?
12:43
Suzanne Maloney -  The supreme leader has been clear in his support for Ahmadinejad throughout the past four years, and none of the 3 rivals are individuals who Khamenei is terribly sympathetic toward. So presumably his preferences remain with Ahmadinejad, as all recent signs show - but Khamenei will take care not to tie himself too greatly to any single individual. For him, what matters is the maintenance of the system, and he wants to minimize  the blow to his credibility if his candidate loses.
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