COVERITLIVE.COM

10:04

John Marelius -

Today is Election Day. At stake are six propositions originally designed to balance the state budget. But the deficit has grown so large -- $21 billion by the latest estimate -- that even if the propositions pass, the state will only climb a little bit of the way out of the hole. Polls indicate that is unlikely to happen. Meanwhile, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger left the state for Election Day to be in Washington where President Obama just announced the U.S. is adopting California's auto emissions standards. So let's get to your questions and comments.

10:05

[Comment From JoM]
Is Arnold is conceding defeat by not being present?

10:08

John Marelius - I don't know if I'd say that, but being out of state on Election Day is certainly unusual for any governor. It's unclear whether he plans to be back for election night, but he has his own plane so he could be if he wanted to. Still, the auto emissions issue is a big deal for him. And if he's going to have a legacy, it's going to have to be on the environment and political reform. It won't be for balancing the budget.

10:10

SignOnLiveChatModerator - John, in your story in today's Union-Tribune you said that only one prop, 1F, enjoys strong support at the polls. What is that proposition and will that support turn into a win for that measure?

10:11

SignOnLiveChatModerator - For those who would like to read John's story, you can find it here: http://tinyurl.com/ouothc

10:14

John Marelius - Proposition 1F denies pay raises to state elected officials when the state is running a deficit. It sounds good, but doesn't really do much. Salaries are set by an independent commission which was part of a ballot propositions voters probably don't even remember voting for. The commission seldom approves pay raises during bad economies anyway.

10:14

[Comment From Tony]
What

10:15

[Comment From Tony]
What's your perspective on the disingenuous titling and description of the initiatives themselves?

10:18

John Marelius - Without commenting on your characterization (although it's hard to disagree with) that is the product of the ballot proposition process. When a citizen initiative qualifies for the ballot, the attorney general's office writes the title and summary and the secretary of state solicits pro and con arguments. When the Legislature puts something on the ballot the Legislature writes the title and summary and decides who gets to write the ballot arguments. Obviously, that allows the Legislature to word things in the manner it finds most convenient.

10:19

[Comment From JoM]
Prop 1F, kind of sounds like the "I will take an oath to not cheat during Finals" pledge they have at colleges... Doesn't mean they won't cheat during the rest of the academic year...

10:24

SignOnLiveChatModerator - John, Schwarzenegger has said that failture to pass these initiatives will result in "devastating cuts in education, health and human services and public safety." The opposition says this isn't the case. Is the governor being honest, or is he just trying to get voters to approve these measures?

10:26

John Marelius - Probably both. The state is going to be in a world of hurt either way. The deficit is $21 billion if the propositions don't pass, $15 billion if they do. What programs get cut remains to be seen, but something will -- a lot.

10:28

John Marelius - A quick add on the Schwarzenegger question. There has been a marked change in tone on the part of the governor and other supporters of the ballot agenda as polls continue to show the propositions losing. They have gone from talking about the benefits of passing the propositions to the consequences of not passing them.

10:28

[Comment From Tony]
I guess it depends on what one means by :devastating."

10:29

John Marelius - "Devastating" is probably overstating the case, but there is no way to cut $21 billion by cutting "waste, fraud and abuse" and all of the other cliches politicians use.

10:29

[Comment From Tony]
Please comment on how we go into this situation. Expenditures have increased by what percentage over the last 4-5 years? The only way to solve this problem is to cut state costs.

10:32

John Marelius - There are two fundamental problems. The first is political will. Politicians don't like to make cuts and they don't like to raise taxes either. Polls show voters have exactly the same attitude. The governor and Legislature make the situation worse when in good years when there is a lot of revenue, they spend it on ongoing programs, rather than one-time expenses such as highway repairs. The other issue is that the California tax system is so heavily dependent on income and sales taxes. So when the economy is strong, there is a lot of money coming in. When the economy is weak, the revenue dries up.

10:32

[Comment From Kevin]
These propositions are just another way to feed the beast. If a bucket has a hole in it, sure you can keep the bucket full by putting more and more water in it. However, what really needs to happen is for the hole to be repaired. In California's case, what is needed is a new bucket. Start from scratch.

10:34

John Marelius - You are probably right. Unfortunately, structural budget reform never gains any traction with politicians or voters. Every couple of years somebody appoints a commissions that writes a report full of ideas of how to reform the tax system. Once the report is released, it just sits on a shelf with all of the others and nothing happens.

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