COVERITLIVE.COM

12:56

Philly.com - Welcome to today's chat with Inquirer columnist Trudy Rubin. She will be joining us at 1 p.m. to discuss the latest events in Iran, but feel free to submit your questions and comments now.

1:02	[Comment From Down in the Basement] Is the West going to denuke Iran or will the USA and Europe allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons? Will Israel attack Iran as they attacked Osirak back in 1981...helping make the West safe from Saddam's nukes?

1:05

Trudy Rubin - I don't think the administration or the US military want to attack Iran. (Israel may indeed want to do so, but would have to fly over airspace controlled byNATO or the United States, or Arab countries to do so).
The conundrum of course is what is plan B, if as is likely, the Iranians keep building centrifuges. My guess is that - failing a shift in Iranian position, or a shift in government structure due to the current turmoil, we will seek tighter sanctions and try to contain an Iran that has nuclear potential but won't actually weaponize.

1:06

[Comment From oldcitymatt]
There seems to be a difference in strategy between Obama and Republican leaders. Republicans (McCain) feel he should strongly and openly denounce the events and take it the next step at the expense of "meddling" accusations. Obama seems to want to let the government implode on its own volition while just stating that violence is terribly inappropriate. What is the better move here?

1:10

Trudy Rubin - McCain-style rhetoric will do nothing to help the Iranian opposition, and in fact would hurt it. There is nothing we can do physically (what does he want - send in the marines? bomb Khamenei?). The outcome of such rhetoric would only be to give the regime the excuse to arrest and try opposition leaders - and it would kill an hopes for a spliti n the military and in the poitical and clericalelite.

1:10	[Comment From Jake] What do you think the outcome will be with the current crisis? More restrictions made by the clerics or is there enough opposition with the protestors to not be put down?

1:13

Trudy Rubin - The outcome in the short term will probably be the strengthening of the military, which backs Khamenei and Ahmadinejad. But the legitimacy of the Islamic system will be undermined, and if the killing continues, there may be splits in the military, the Revolutionary Guards, and there might be wider protests from senior clerics in Qom.

1:13	[Comment From kingfishtown] Why is the US involved in IRANIAN affairs?

1:15

Trudy Rubin - The United States is not involved in Iran's domestic affairs. However, the world is involved i Iran's external affairs because it is illicitly working on weapons' prgrams to develop nuclear capacity which would set off an arms race in the entire region. The UN has voted sanctions on Iran for ths reason. And a regime that kills its own peaceful people is less likely to abide by international or UN rules.

1:15	[Comment From bob] The religious clerics control the Iranian goverment. It does not matter who their president is. It is ashame the Iranian people are getting killed and injured. Their will never be democracy in Iran.

1:17

Trudy Rubin - Until now there had been a limited form of democracy in Iran, where in presidential elections there were sometimes surprises that the Supreme Leader didn't like. In this election, the military and the Supreme Leader have finished with such limited democracy. That will have domestic consequences that we can't yet see.

1:17	[Comment From James] Why do you think it took the American media a few days to really ramp up its coverage of events in Iran? Do you think most Americans are really paying attention?

1:20

Trudy Rubin - I think the coverage was pretty intense when the American media had correspondents inside Iran. When most of them had been expelled, it took a couple of days for CNN to figure out a new system, but print media kept going. Of course, because of the current bans, everyone is reinventing coverage via cell phone video and calls and tweets. Most Americans probably arent paying attention, but a large number are and should.

1:20	[Comment From Frank] I think the Republicans are laying a trap for Obama. Try to force him into greater "meddling", and then when things go wrong as you pointed out can happen with McCain-style rhetoric, they turn around and say, "See, he doesn't have enough experience. I am being paranoid?

1:21	Trudy Rubin - No, you are not. I think Obama has done just fine so far, but will have harder choices ahead, because it looks like the new Iranian military regime has little interest in engagement if it requires any compromises.

1:21	[Comment From oldcitymatt] Do you think this is a turning point in women's rights history in Iran? There seems to be a lot of focus on their courageous involvement in this crisis.

1:23	Trudy Rubin - Yes, I wrote on this today in my column. I think the lead role women have played in the pre and post electiondemos, the role of Mousavi's wife, the death of Neda, all combined show that women will continue to be a major pressure group for change.

1:23	[Comment From Raymond] Why hasn't the UN come up with a resolution of condemnation?

1:25	Trudy Rubin - I think everyone has been waiting to see if the regime would come up with some formula of compromise. Unfortunately, even if this is not the case, the UN is not likely to condemn ian nternal Iranian political crackdown, because Russia and China won't sign on (for obvious reasons).

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